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Pattern October Thread

Weather here has been absolutely amazing this week. Had some wind Monday and Tuesday but yesterday today, tomorrow, and really the next week looks downright perfect. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s, & low humidity. I don’t miss sweating my butt off during Oct in NC.
Although we will be sweating next two days you basically just described our weather for the next forceable future .. we know you miss NC bro just come back there’s nothing like a good “will I get 14 inches of snow or 4 inches of pure sleet with some upper level low snow on top ” type of winter storm to track
 
KATL:

High temperatures directly after the frontal passage Saturday morning will struggle
to get out of the 60s for portions of N. Georgia, with lows
plummeting nearly 20 degrees into the upper 30s/mid 40s to make
Sunday and Monday the first "cold" mornings of the season for a
majority of the CWA.
 
Would be interested to see what the second half brings .. if we can get those bowling balls to line up and actually be super volatile we could possibly bring this much closer to an average month .. but we’re probably looking at a +2-3 degrees on the month when all is said and done 7F9593AF-CC0C-4F48-BDC7-525FFF9139EE.png
 
Absolutely looking forward to working in cold conditions with freezing hands and inflamed sinuses with constant sniffling every 2 seconds ! Gonna miss fall when it’s gone
Like you and Larry are saying, we probably will have two falls with limited cold air☹?‍♂️ Dont worry fro, you be ok buddy
 
18z NAM has dps 37-39 over the weekend. If the wind dies down I bet my location flirts with 39-40 on Sunday morning. BMX has 44-45 and on the colder nights the cold spot a mile down the road beats it by 4-5F.
Yeah the wind is the bugaboo for Sunday/ Monday mornings. If it dies off upper 30s are doable for many locations in the region if it stays up mid 40s seems more likely. I think Monday morning has a better chance for the region as a whole to get super chilly as the high builds overhead. But over your way into parts of Tn/Ms winds might die off just early enough Sunday morning to really see temps drop
 
This ridge
ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11 (25).png
Or this muted version
gfs_z500a_nhem_40 (2).png
Or this more polar/Arctic version quasi -nao
gem_z500a_nhem_41 (4).png

Are going to be such a problem for the models over the next few days and potentially longer with much much different results for our region. You can see the disparity in the eps/gefs with the temp spreads between max and min members getting as high as 20 degrees by d8/9 which is a little unusual at the time frame (it gets even wider post d10)
 
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FWD has bumped highs next Tuesday - Thursday into the upper 70s / low 80s, which is near average.
 
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