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October Odyssey

Rain Cold said:
Better start warming up to this look:

View attachment 50111
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6z coming in and it has a similar look; but the trough out west is not as deep and looks to be move eastward overtime. Lol, the 0z would have another hurricane hit the gulf (at ~ day 15). The 6z has one moving into the gulf ~ day 12 (almost looks like Delta's path).
 
FallsLake said:
6z coming in and it has a similar look; but the trough out west is not as deep and looks to be move eastward overtime. Lol, the 0z would have another hurricane hit the gulf (at ~ day 15). The 6z has one moving into the gulf ~ day 12 (almost looks like Delta's path).
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Hurricane season is crazy this year. How many hits can LA take?

And GTK the GFS hasn't lost a step with it's cold bias*

* H/T to Maxar
 
So in the shorter term (..or really long term), the next cold front (next weekend) looks to bring dew points below freezing for many on the board. Models are not showing below freezing surface temps outside the mountains, but they may not be seeing the possibility of the high moving overhead and decoupling winds. 6z looks like it could do that on Saturday night. Would be nice to at least get some frost.
 
From RAH:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM Saturday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Delta will be over the VA/NC
mountains Monday morning, and while the bulk of the rainfall
associated with the system will be to the northeast, some additional
moisture will extend southeast. Still have a chance of showers
across all locations, with a rumble of thunder possible east of
Interstate 95 during the afternoon hours. The ECMWF and SREF seem to
be wet outliers in showing a shower Monday night with a passing cold
front, but will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

High pressure will then dominate the middle of the work week with
mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures before a stronger
cold front comes through on Friday. The GFS is a faster and drier
solution than the slower and wetter ECMWF solution, and have tried
to put together a compromise forecaster, increasing pops across the
east where the diurnal cycle would favor more precipitation if the
ECMWF solution verifies. The bigger impact from the front will be
the coldest air of the year so far for high temperatures - with it
being seven days out, will start conservatively in the upper 50s and
lower 60s for Saturday, but these numbers may be too warm.
 
FallsLake said:
From RAH:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM Saturday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Delta will be over the VA/NC
mountains Monday morning, and while the bulk of the rainfall
associated with the system will be to the northeast, some additional
moisture will extend southeast. Still have a chance of showers
across all locations, with a rumble of thunder possible east of
Interstate 95 during the afternoon hours. The ECMWF and SREF seem to
be wet outliers in showing a shower Monday night with a passing cold
front, but will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

High pressure will then dominate the middle of the work week with
mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures before a stronger
cold front comes through on Friday. The GFS is a faster and drier
solution than the slower and wetter ECMWF solution, and have tried
to put together a compromise forecaster, increasing pops across the
east where the diurnal cycle would favor more precipitation if the
ECMWF solution verifies. The bigger impact from the front will be
the coldest air of the year so far for high temperatures - with it
being seven days out, will start conservatively in the upper 50s and
lower 60s for Saturday, but these numbers may be too warm.
Click to expand...
That's awesome
 
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