Pattern Novemburrr

[iGRXY]

So throw darts at the board while we are blind folded… about same method . Hard to get excited just yet be honest

Even that time period is still below normal on the GEFS. Colder temps seems like a very good bet next week.

 

[SD]

Holy crap these dews

 

[Webberweather53]

Holy crap these dewsView attachment 95144

Pretty impressive that you have drier air than me

 

[SD]

We're going to wedge Thanksgiving weekend

 

[Webberweather53]

Good lord, pushing 585dm on the southern tip of Greenland.

 

[SD]

This is really something

 

[LukeBarrette]

This would be a good look in January with more cold air available, too bad its novemeber

 

[SD]

Here comes the wudge/Miller b

 

[Webberweather53]

12z ICON is also biting on the western trough/-PNA right before thanksgiving to with -NAO. Setting ourselves up for CAD.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Pretty uneventful 12z guidance so far I do wonder if the euro holds its ground .. Canadian was not nearly as intense of a cold snap but dam that -NAO is truly something to behold that thing is bound to throw a wrench in model outputs the next few days .. I would say model confidence should be fairly low right now

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Good god though if we can get this -NAO right now at least we know it’s still wants to show up and it’s still not dormant like it was prior to last year

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep NE, SE can trough/heights building in between the western trough and SE can trough under the block, who’s ready for cold rain CAD

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Cold rain here we come

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty strong signal for a western trough on the 12z model runs as we near Thanksgiving, but not before a massive cold shot earlier in the week in the SE US. The GEFS has been really consistent in showing a -PNA in this timeframe, I expect the ECMWF/EPS to probably follow suit. As noted earlier in the thread wrt NC winter storms during -NAO/-PNA, we're probably setting ourselves up for a big CAD/Miller B event in the final days of Nov if this trend continues.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty great trend for everyone to win on the GEFS

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Pretty strong signal for a western trough on the 12z model runs as we near Thanksgiving, but not before a massive cold shot earlier in the week in the SE US. The GEFS has been really consistent in showing a -PNA in this timeframe, I expect the ECMWF/EPS to probably follow suit. As noted earlier in the thread wrt NC winter storms during -NAO/-PNA, we're probably setting ourselves up for a big CAD/Miller B event in the final days of Nov if this trend continues.



View attachment 95152

Let’s just hope we can get enough cold air to actually make something happen .. worried we’re just too early to have that happen but alas we will continue to watch

 

[Myfrotho704_]

we could as easily turn this into severe wx for the southern parts of the SE/southern plains,
But overall the + tilt isn’t to impressive for severe wx

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Damn that -NAO stayed all the way through the Gfs .. theres going to be some wild runs in the future I bet that thing is going to have so many systems backed up

 

[GaWx]

Let’s just hope we can get enough cold air to actually make something happen .. worried we’re just too early to have that happen but alas we will continue to watch

In the SE US, there's plenty of cold air to make cold air happen. The 12Z GEFS is about the coldest run yet through 240 for the E US as a whole on an HDD basis.

 

[wxdaniel]

In the SE US, there's plenty of cold air to make cold air happen. The 12Z GEFS is about the coldest run yet through 240 for the E US as a whole on an HDD basis.

I've heard this before.