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Pattern Novemburrr

While Miller A/coastal cyclones are the favored storm type w/ -NAO when the pattern can support winter storms, it's certainly far from guaranteed

For example, every winter storm I've looked at since 1948 ending up being a Miller B/CAD event when a -PNA couples to -NAO (n = ~ 25). -PNA/SW US - southern plains cut offs force warm advection aloft, and encourage height rises over the Lakes and southern Quebec/Ontario + synoptic-scale descent over New England >> surface pressure rises.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Notice you didn’t show the GFS’s own ensemble, the GEFS, which looks the same as the op
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Yeah I hold more stock in the euro and Canadian ensembles as they jump around way less often and stick to their guns more than not. I believe euro was the first one to see this winter cold attack in the east consistently so yes I didn’t include the GEFS
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah I hold more stock in the euro and Canadian ensembles as they jump around way less often and stick to their guns more than not. I believe euro was the first one to see this winter cold attack in the east consistently so yes I didn’t include the GEFS
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The Canadian? The model that perpetually gives us subzero temperatures from November all the way through March? You put stock in that Canadian?
 
Lickwx said:
The Canadian? The model that perpetually gives us subzero temperatures from November all the way through March? You put stock in that Canadian?
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More the ensembles the operational is a crazy uncle .. I put more stock in any group of ensembles more than its operational plus more often than not it leans towards the euro which usually catches onto the right idea the quickest but at the end of the day anything can happen with weather around here ??‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah I hold more stock in the euro and Canadian ensembles as they jump around way less often and stick to their guns more than not. I believe euro was the first one to see this winter cold attack in the east consistently so yes I didn’t include the GEFS
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The Canadian ensembles are the least reliable of the 3 major ensemble suites, you're just saying this because it's producing the solution you want.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Canadian ensembles are the least reliable of the 3 major ensemble suites, you're just saying this because it's producing the solution you want.
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I mean he's not wrong that the GFS and GEFS have been widely swinging back and forth between warmth and cold every few runs. Especially the operational. GFS has been way too warm in the medium and long range at least around my neck of the woods. Consistently anywhere from 3-7 degrees too warm even going into the short range. Doesn't mean it isn't right in the solution for more ridging over the east but it looks like a -NAO is going to be pretty persistent even into the long range right now and that's going to mute any SE ridge. At least with what the models are showing right now, average seems to be the warmer side of any solution and cold definitely appears to be more likely, strictly at this point in time. Could easily switch back however.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
My biggest question still is how this pattern progresses into December. Gut tells me the NAO breaks down by then but who knows
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Yeah a lot of analog divergence once you get around Christmas into January. I figure we get into a SER look at some point in the first half of December and we start to approach the fork in the road of do we see it continue into Jan or do we go back into the pacific driven cold for late Dec into mid Jan
 
iGRXY said:
I mean he's not wrong that the GFS and GEFS have been widely swinging back and forth between warmth and cold every few runs. Especially the operational. GFS has been way too warm in the medium and long range at least around my neck of the woods. Consistently anywhere from 3-7 degrees too warm even going into the short range. Doesn't mean it isn't right in the solution for more ridging over the east but it looks like a -NAO is going to be pretty persistent even into the long range right now and that's going to mute any SE ridge. At least with what the models are showing right now, average seems to be the warmer side of any solution and cold definitely appears to be more likely, strictly at this point in time. Could easily switch back however.
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For the time period that's being discussed, I don't know how much more consistency you could ask for from the GEFS. Not seeing any wild swings near Thanksgiving in the last several runs.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh204_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
For the time period that's being discussed, I don't know how much more consistency you could ask for from the GEFS. Not seeing any wild swings near Thanksgiving in the last several runs.

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This has literally been the GFS at the same time period. That is just from the last 4 model cycles. There are clear night and day changes on every run.
 
iGRXY said:
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This has literally been the GFS at the same time period. That is just from the last 4 model cycles. There are clear night and day changes on every run.
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I wasn't talking about the GFS operational. You said both the GFS and GFS ensemble (GEFS) have been inconsistent and flipping wildly from run-to-run, which simply isn't true at all if you look at the gif in my response to you showing run-run consistency on the GEFS. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's right & it might start flip-flopping soon, but I want to make sure others reading your post are getting accurate information.
 
LukeBarrette said:
operational changes all the damn time obviously, the ensemble is more reliable so I wouldnt pay attention to wild swings on the operational.
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I know this lol. The GEFS has had swings just like the operational. Maybe not for 18z on Wednesday 11/24 but it has also had its fair share of crazy swings also. The Euro and EPS have as well. Point being they haven’t been nearly has inconsistent as the GFS and GEFS.
 
iGRXY said:
I know this lol. The GEFS has had swings just like the operational. Maybe not for 18z on Wednesday 11/24 but it has also had its fair share of crazy swings also. The Euro and EPS have as well. Point being they haven’t been nearly has inconsistent as the GFS and GEFS.
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So throw darts at the board while we are blind folded… about same method . Hard to get excited just yet be honest
 
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