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Pattern Novemburrr

metwannabe said:
After this stretch of warmth looks like a nice stretch of Fall weather, with a few more frost/freezing opportunities. Euro doesn't get out of the 40s next Tuesday
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Is it showing clouds or sunshine though? If sunshine prolly a bit warmer . Regardless crisp . 50/30 versus 45/32 or something .
 
metwannabe said:
After this stretch of warmth looks like a nice stretch of Fall weather, with a few more frost/freezing opportunities. Euro doesn't get out of the 40s next Tuesday
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And we probably warm on the backside of that and then potentially get cold on the backside of that. Who knew that variability happens thought it was supposed to be 90/70 still or 40/15 no other options
 
SD said:
And we probably warm on the backside of that and then potentially get cold on the backside of that. Who knew that variability happens thought it was supposed to be 90/70 still or 40/15 no other options
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It’s going to be warm AND cold in the SE during fall?!?! What the heck!
 
Since we are seeing ridging showing up in the EPO/WPO region chances are it repeats throughout the winter. Hopefully it evolves like 13-14. While that winter finished slightly about average overall because when it was warm it was very warm, it also had plenty of firgid weather and good snows for most. Can't remember if that was a La Nina or neutral but I'm almost certain it wasn't a El Nino.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Since we are seeing ridging showing up in the EPO/WPO region chances are it repeats throughout the winter. Hopefully it evolves like 13-14. While that winter finished slightly about average overall because when it was warm it was very warm, it also had plenty of firgid weather and good snows for most. Can't remember if that was a La Nina or neutral but I'm almost certain it wasn't a El Nino.
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Neutral …
 
Brad P mentioned the low sea ice levels leading to more blocking and about how where the trough sets up can affect whether we have cold or end up getting SE ridged to hell.

That just confirms my personal feelings about a wild winter when it comes to temps, it could be w constant battle between the SE ridge and any troughs that may come.

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
And we probably warm on the backside of that and then potentially get cold on the backside of that. Who knew that variability happens thought it was supposed to be 90/70 still or 40/15 no other options
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Looks like the warmup on the backside of next weeks cool down might be short lived but that's getting out there and I don't know what post D10 looks like. Any who, I bet your like me and might start to worry when/if 10 day eps doesn't show any BN anomalies.
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like the warmup on the backside of next weeks cool down might be short lived but that's getting out there and I don't know what post D10 looks like. Any who, I bet your like me and might start to worry when/if 10 day eps doesn't show any BN anomalies.
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Yeah even then it's still November and today was really nice. I'll start stressing over the anom maps when the snow window really opens
 
Brent said:
Same but then again I live in the best climo for snow I've ever lived in this winter ? not saying much but compared to Dallas and Alabama yeah...
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It's been over 100 years since Tulsa had a snowless winter so you are almost guaranteed to see snow on the ground this winter.
 
It’s been a while since this -EPO/-PNA/+NAO/+AO look has occurred in the cooler season, have to go back to March 2020, this could become stubborn, but the TPV brings cold towards our side quite a bit, makes it a waiting game 08B21BC5-4CCE-48D9-80A3-BA26C11AE78E.png
 
GaWx said:
You like a lot of different things making it hard to interpret sometimes. But if you're talking about the side of you that likes the SER, I agree with your assessment.

View attachment 94648
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Yes, I like, love the southeast ridge, but man the cold and TPV sitting in Canada that could make its presence known towards the end of November, if it does something right then the chance of snow is higher then usual given how cold the source is
 
If 4 5 and 6 of mjo are supposed to be the phases that promotes a colder pattern east of the rockies and it's not happening, what kind of pattern do we need then? That part confuses me. Unless the mjo is hung up
 
Mr. Golf said:
If 4 5 and 6 of mjo are supposed to be the phases that promotes a colder pattern east of the rockies and it's not happening, what kind of pattern do we need then? That part confuses me. Unless the mjo is hung up
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Need to get to P6 asap. P4-5 start to transition to not great as November moves along
 
Mr. Golf said:
I feel like if we aren't able to score on a few winter events before mid December, that may be it for the winter, especially if January/February are torches. We all should really pull for a pattern that supports winter opportunities before we run out of time.
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You feel that way because you're reading too many of the nonsense posts here. Every time you see a map and hear welp Nina, you should just move on to the next post. Yes Nina influences the pattern, but it would be easy to believe that it's the only thing we need to pay attention to by reading many of the posts here. If it were only that easy.

We will have opportunities throughout the winter. Don't fret.
 
Mr. Golf said:
I feel like if we aren't able to score on a few winter events before mid December, that may be it for the winter, especially if January/February are torches. We all should really pull for a pattern that supports winter opportunities before we run out of time.
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Dude relax it’s only November
 
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