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Pattern Novemburrr

SD said:
We going to try to sneak a wudge in next week if we aren't careful
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I’m pulling for y’all to get pellets tomorrow!! If y’all get frozen before I see a flake or pellet, all is wrong with the world! ??
 
Still think we moderate those temps next week to an extent. And SD is right, we are a couple tugs away from going from mid to upper 60's to a CAD wedge. Plus that severe look would be stout and a15 degree drop in an hour type of scenario next week.
 
SD said:
Yeah not sure there's enough of a surface high to really propel the sfc bounday south into the area especially with a limited amount of rain/convection to the north
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Right now no but it isn't going to take much to turn that into a CAD look.
 
Got below 39 degrees overnight for the first time this fall. Low temp was 33 and tonight I will get the first freeze of the season. October was way above average, especially the lows. It was the warmest lows on avg I can remember since moving here in 2006. The lows seem to be the most noticeable change I’ve observed since we’ve been in this warmer climate over the last decade.
 
olhausen said:
Got below 39 degrees overnight for the first time this fall. Low temp was 33 and tonight I will get the first freeze of the season. October was way above average, especially the lows. It was the warmest lows on avg I can remember since moving here in 2006. The lows seem to be the most noticeable change I’ve observed since we’ve been in this warmer climate over the last decade.
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Yeap seeing a lot more low 70 lows in summer and not many 20s and 10s for lows in winter and no more freezes in October. It was in the mid 90s the last time I remember it getting below 30 in October. I was at NCSU at the time and it was October 20 something.


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Here we go with a chilly November and the rest of the winter garbage.


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BHS1975 said:
Yeap seeing a lot more low 70 lows in summer and not many 20s and 10s for lows in winter and no more freezes in October. It was in the mid 90s the last time I remember it getting below 30 in October. I was at NCSU at the time and it was October 20 something.


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Hell we didn't into the 30s at all this October.


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BHS1975 said:
Here we go with a chilly November and the rest of the winter garbage.


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Though it obviously could turn out mild and most forecasts have it at least slightly warmer than 1991-2020 normals (mild wouldn't surprise me at all in a moderate La Nina with a very warm Maritime continent), there's no correlation of a chilly Nov and mild winter. If contrast if anything, there's a small positive correlation.
 
Like I mentioned a week ago, we would want to see a cold pattern in longer wavelengths in winter instead of shorter wavelengths currently. Better opportunities in longer wavelengths for snow and ice events outside the favored higher elevations
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Torchvember View attachment 94264
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Now this is more torch looking even though this is still a nice 70 degrees but for this time of year it could be considered torch .. this is also pre big time cold front so it’s to be expected with the warm sector 4ED93151-1960-4415-9F2E-31F13FB5DDA4.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Now this is more torch looking even though this is still a nice 70 degrees but for this time of year it could be considered torch .. this is also pre big time cold front so it’s to be expected with the warm sector View attachment 94269
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I don’t see anything crazy. A normal November will see some upper 70s.
 
This is a very very legit signal for very cold weather, already getting this on a hour 340+ mean with a -EPO/+PNA, but the H5 pattern is the first legit one the could support cross polar flow with high pressure around/north of Alaska which would funnel the Arctic towards us, note the TPV around the North Pole, that ridging north of AK would take some cold air from it towards us, this is quite far out tho but I just noticed how Impressive it is F2033DE0-9752-46E3-B5CC-56C0ACC82300.pngE2292B8D-EDC8-4A9B-94B1-670552D3C2EE.png7C66FD38-0478-4AE2-A19E-625DA8F74AA3.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is a very very legit signal for very cold weather, already getting this on a hour 340+ mean with a -EPO/+PNA, but the H5 pattern is the first legit one the could support cross polar flow with high pressure around/north of Alaska which would funnel the Arctic towards us, note the TPV around the North Pole, that ridging north of AK would take some cold air from it towards us, this is quite far out tho but I just noticed how Impressive it is View attachment 94270View attachment 94271View attachment 94272
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Wow! I'm suprised you posted a cold map fro?
 
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