I think November cold is better than October cold!? We can reload and get that blockbuster, backloaded winter we are all waiting on!
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Pattern November Nuances
- Thread starter Kylo
- Start date
Euro doesn’t even have a system on the 14th. Bone dry
Coldest high I got over the weekend is 55 on Saturday! Guess the cold not gonna be that record breaking or somebody be hugging the GFS
Brent
Member
Oh Canada:weenie:
Brent
Member
Brrrrr
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like the GFS is aboard the Euro's cold train now. Has similar temps here on the 14th. Both mid to upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CFSv2 forecast for November w/ a CONUS-wide blowtorch is busting epically. People still take this model seriously?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Given the possibility of record cold next week and the pattern of cold blasts continuing if the ridge out west holds, definitely a big bust. At least it's a positive bust with it being colder instead of cold busting as a blowtorch.
About to get lit up!
Yep. No way we get whiffed on his one. Looks like I’m taking the rest of the day off
Looking at climo data for CHA it appears typical of a weak-moderate Nino to drop a mid-November cold blast. The 3 coldest lows for Nov 14th are 18 in 1969 and 24 in 1986 and 2014. Back up to the 13th, there's 18 in 1911, and 2nd coldest 23 in 1968. On the 15th there's a frigid 15 in 1969 and yep 1963 in there as well 5th coldest at 23. My excitement for winter 2018-19 just went up a few notches. Just soooo many big dogs in the analogs. Late December onward is going to rock.
Yeah, cause it’s not snow, and no warm nose!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is getting ridiculous but it's becoming more likely at this point.
Even Phil in Florida gets in on the cold with a high around 50 per the GFS.
Even Phil in Florida gets in on the cold with a high around 50 per the GFS.
Yea. Really unreal for real for this early in November. Well at least we enjoyed our week of fall.This is getting ridiculous but it's becoming more likely at this point.
Even Phil in Florida gets in on the cold with a high around 50 per the GFS.
pcbjr
Member
Actually that 50º (should it happen) is Ocala; we'd be a good 3º to 6º cooler ...
Little things like that make me smile ...
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pcbjr
Member
The GFS has been showing a possible clipper around the 14th.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Yeah I've been watching that period very closely. Doesn't look like any actual accumulating snow, but there's no reason someone here on this board can see some flakes flying early this year.
olhausen
Member
WOW at the models and all the cold they are showing coming up! The last time I saw snow in November was in 2014. It was a dusting that was gone by the afternoon but it’s always a bonus to see snow in the south before December. I won’t be surprised if I see the most snow I’ve ever experienced in November happen this year. Never seen more then a dusting so it won’t take much.
If that ain’t a sight for sore eyes
pcbjr
Member
Like, but none of us live at 850; get those anomalies and those colors to the surface ... then no need to worry about snow pack, the ground itself would serve as the top half of a Frigidaire ...
pcbjr
Member
Holy smokes, some of y'all are statistically in a nice place ...
NoSnowATL
Member
If it was only Jan I would be buying a pig. Still good to tho ...Holy smokes, some of y'all are statistically in a nice place ...
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Not sure about that, there are a few with their head in the clouds....Like, but none of us live at 850; get those anomalies and those colors to the surface ... then no need to worry about snow pack, the ground itself would serve as the top half of a Frigidaire ...
pcbjr
Member
OK; I know criticism when I see it ... LOLNot sure about that, there are a few with their head in the clouds....
Nah, no criticism just banter and I'll keep it on topic now
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pcbjr
Member
Now, now, agreement is always necessary ... LOLNot sure about that, there are a few with their head in the clouds....
pcbjr
Member
Just bantering back ...Nah, no criticism just banter and I'll keep it on topic now
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS has some SN/IP in the southwestern piedmont and southern mountains at day 5-6! Lock it in! Crank up the thread!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
LOL. To add to it, it's a weak CAD situation, so that's ice.
I'd rather keep an eye on the 13th because the GFS has been showing a possible clipper around that time period.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Don't know how it has snowfall on the map with 850's and 925's both at +3C to +4C
Kylo
Member
I'll take it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Saturated parcels in that environment would wet bulb the entire sounding to freezing (blue line), thus where there's precipitation and a saturated column in this run verbatim there's some wintry precipitation.
Better get the bread and milk lol.
Last time I seen snow in November 2013 a day before thanksgiving. I had a dusting of snow in Atlanta. I know it will change but impressive cold air mass
NoSnowATL
Member
Yep I remember driving down 78 towards Decatur and drove through a snow bust, kinda cool.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I didn't realize that the wet-bulb was <0C throughout the column... Sorry about that.