• Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Pattern November Nuances (1 Viewer)

GaStorm

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
587
Likes
492
Location
Cumming
#2
Hoping to bring the mojo to this thread for winter since my birthday is in November. Just remember the weather in November the winter will remember! So if we see Miller A type storms or blocking expect it to repeat!
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,715
Likes
10,566
Location
Charlotte, NC
#6
Yeah for the fact that you want continued wave-1 forcing to disturb the polar vortex early on, it's usually good to keep the Aleutian Low strong, granted there are other ways to do this but at least we have a Scandinavian ridge for the foreseeable future ensuring that the PV doesn't become exceptionally strong even if the Aleutian Low falters for a while.
Something to look/hope for as we get deeper into November is to monitor the amplitude of the Scandinavian ridge. If the Scandinavian high were to amplify, it would eventually begin to retrograde westward and become a negative NAO late in November. Large, retrogressive Scandinavian ridges are actually the main pathway thru which we get long-lasting & strong negative NAOs, anticyclones "breaking" poleward from the south into Greenland & Iceland rarely work out in our favor in the long run.
I'm going to piggy back off of this post in the 2018-19 winter thread. Not surprisingly, we're starting to see some ECMWF forecasts w/ a -NAO as we encroach on mid-November. In light of the aforementioned post and the fact we have a belt of anomalous easterly momentum (in green) near 45-50N, this favors high-latitude blocking in general and only lends more legitimacy to the idea that we might finally get a decent -NAO sometime in/around the 2nd-3rd week of November, knocking on the door of our winter wx climo in the Carolinas.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

glaam.sig.seascyc.90day.gif


We've seen snow in the 2nd week of November as recently as 2013 in central NC.
November 12 2013 NC Snowmap.png
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
594
Likes
500
Location
Atlanta, GA
#8
I remember getting about 1/4 inch of snow the day before Thanksgiving back in 2013. Not sure if the airport measured any accumulation, but that's the earliest I've ever seen measurable snowfall. It didn't last long iirc, maybe a couple hours before it was gone.
 
Joined
Feb 6, 2017
Messages
1,567
Likes
2,585
Location
Raleigh, NC
#9
I'm going to piggy back off of this post in the 2018-19 winter thread. Not surprisingly, we're starting to see some ECMWF forecasts w/ a -NAO as we encroach on mid-November. In light of the aforementioned post and the fact we have a belt of anomalous easterly momentum (in green) near 45-50N, this favors high-latitude blocking in general and only lends more legitimacy to the idea that we might finally get a decent -NAO sometime in/around the 2nd-3rd week of November, knocking on the door of our winter wx climo in the Carolinas.


We've seen snow in the 2nd week of November as recently as 2013 in central NC.
I suppose it's not a coincidence to see that back in the 60's when -NAO was more prevalent it was preceded in October/November by a Scandinavian ridge and NP low?

OctNov60s.png

60sNAO.png
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,715
Likes
10,566
Location
Charlotte, NC
#10
I suppose it's not a coincidence to see that back in the 60's when -NAO was more prevalent it was preceded in October/November by a Scandinavian ridge and NP low?

View attachment 7109

View attachment 7111
Yes that is no coincidence, that pattern configuration late in the fall if it persists, increases wave driving on the polar vortex leading to disruption and weakening later on that’s manifest as blocking over Greenland where the primary pole of the AO is located
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
5,322
Likes
6,598
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
#12
Here are the 3 biggest winter storms in mid-November east of the mountains that I've come across in the historical record. I'd gladly take any of these...
View attachment 7106
View attachment 7107
View attachment 7108
That 2000 event was a nice over performer/surprise. If I remember correctly forecast was for mainly rain or snow to rain and it snowed most of the day with a good period of heavy marshmallows. Was almost all melted by the next morning as temps hung around 33-34

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2016
Messages
586
Likes
611
#13
That 2000 event was a nice over performer/surprise. If I remember correctly forecast was for mainly rain or snow to rain and it snowed most of the day with a good period of heavy marshmallows. Was almost all melted by the next morning as temps hung around 33-34

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Started on Sunday morning here 2.8 inches, jackpotted lol. Let up by mid afternoon,sun peeked out and was all gone by sunset. Beleive it was mid November, like 17th or 18th. Earliest event here by far. THE Previous January was the crusher along with that all time greatest 2 week stretch of winter wx in my lifetime. Had 4 winterstorms during that timeframe. Fact Jan 2000- Feb 28,2004 was a great time here. Had the catastrophic 2002 December Ice storm, and the ULL Feb 28,2004 (17 inches thundersnow). All that on the heels of those late 90s NC Hurricanes. Unfortunately no wx board till the Feb 2004 event.
 
Last edited:

MRStorm

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
126
Likes
166
Location
McCalla, AL
#16
I am hearing talk of a possible severe weather event next week. Not sure of its impacts on the south.
Here is a snippet from this mornings update from B'ham.

NEXT WEEK: The latest run of the GFS model hints that a decent part of the day Monday will be dry, but then it shows a stormy setup for Tuesday, November 6, election day. We will mention a good chance of strong storms, and we could very well be looking at a severe weather threat. Of course, too early for details now, but just something to watch. The latter half of the week looks cool and dry.
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
3,909
Likes
2,093
Location
Richmond, Indiana
#20
It's nice to know that we are just 8 hours away from entering a month where snowfall is at least POSSIBLE. Not likely, but crazier things have happened. Heck if we can get almost a foot of snow like we did in early December last year I certainly wouldn't rule out snow in the latter half of November.
 

Storm5

Staff member
Administrator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
9,818
Likes
14,491
Location
Birmingham Alabama
#23
Just for comparison the FV3 (it's replacement) is showing this, which is more likely IMO...... time to bid the GFS a fond farewell

I’m not sure the FV3 is gonna be that much better . It’s gotta be better than the GFS but that’s not saying much


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top