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Pattern November Nuances

That is a whopper of a winter storm at day 11 on the gfs so close probably a blizzard in some areas

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png
 
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CMC wants to play
 
brrr at the Euro here, near record lows next Friday/Saturday, Thursday near 80, Friday struggles to get above the lower 40s :eek:

Also a hint of snow not too far away
 
Impressive modeled cold first half of November. EPS agrees too. I know the CFS is a conus blowtorch so maybe the back half of November will be AN. I do expect December to be warm across much of the conus though.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_fh120-384.gif

Goes along with the cold/snowy nino composite of cold focused in central conus.

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Interestingly I’m teasing the idea of watching the 12-14th period for a possible... possible interesting storm system.

The fv3-GFS Has shown a strong storm signal for this period for 2 days now.

The last two runs have been fairly consistent given the timeframe and are suppressed.

The cold is there. Plenty of it.
C53AF42C-D757-49FA-AC73-8229A73106AF.png

The moisture is there as well.
DD649C0D-E5C3-441C-B55A-86C3BE669226.png
Of course regardless of the month it’ll take a “perfect” setup as always. But interesting signal to say the least.
 
Interestingly I’m teasing the idea of watching the 12-14th period for a possible... possible interesting storm system.

The fv3-GFS Has shown a strong storm signal for this period for 2 days now.

The last two runs have been fairly consistent given the timeframe and are suppressed.

The cold is there. Plenty of it.
View attachment 7152

The moisture is there as well.
View attachment 7153
Of course regardless of the month it’ll take a “perfect” setup as always. But interesting signal to say the least.
I agree, fv3 has been strong on this storm signal for a while now, other models has been back n forth as well. Why not get something in that time period? Last year I received my first snow storm in southwest Alabama December 8th. Anyways Roll Tide
 
As crazy as the weather is nowadays, nothing really surprises me. So bring on the November snow !
 
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