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Pattern November Nuances

SoutheastRidge said:
I'm kinda worried that all this cold in November will mean a flip to warmer weather in December.
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I think November cold is better than October cold!? We can reload and get that blockbuster, backloaded winter we are all waiting on!
 
Coldest high I got over the weekend is 55 on Saturday! Guess the cold not gonna be that record breaking or somebody be hugging the GFS
 
Looks like the GFS is aboard the Euro's cold train now. Has similar temps here on the 14th. Both mid to upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows.
gfs_T2m_seus_34.png

gfs_T2m_seus_35.png
 
C1CB69DA-5EF8-4815-B4A3-C927B68B65E5.png About to get lit up!
 
Looking at climo data for CHA it appears typical of a weak-moderate Nino to drop a mid-November cold blast. The 3 coldest lows for Nov 14th are 18 in 1969 and 24 in 1986 and 2014. Back up to the 13th, there's 18 in 1911, and 2nd coldest 23 in 1968. On the 15th there's a frigid 15 in 1969 and yep 1963 in there as well 5th coldest at 23. My excitement for winter 2018-19 just went up a few notches. Just soooo many big dogs in the analogs. Late December onward is going to rock.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This is getting ridiculous but it's becoming more likely at this point.
gfs_T850_seus_32.png

Even Phil in Florida gets in on the cold with a high around 50 per the GFS.
gfs_T2m_seus_34.png
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Yea. Really unreal for real for this early in November. Well at least we enjoyed our week of fall. :)
 
WOW at the models and all the cold they are showing coming up! The last time I saw snow in November was in 2014. It was a dusting that was gone by the afternoon but it’s always a bonus to see snow in the south before December. I won’t be surprised if I see the most snow I’ve ever experienced in November happen this year. Never seen more then a dusting so it won’t take much.
 
pcbjr said:
Like, but none of us live at 850; get those anomalies and those colors to the surface ... then no need to worry about snow pack, the ground itself would serve as the top half of a Frigidaire ... :eek:
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Not sure about that, there are a few with their head in the clouds.... :):)
 
I'd rather keep an eye on the 13th because the GFS has been showing a possible clipper around that time period.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Don't know how it has snowfall on the map with 850's and 925's both at +3C to +4C
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Saturated parcels in that environment would wet bulb the entire sounding to freezing (blue line), thus where there's precipitation and a saturated column in this run verbatim there's some wintry precipitation.
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