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Pattern November Knock-Out

Storm5 said:
Headed to the mountains that weekend I can assure you it will be sunny and 70s region wide
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It's not a fantasy storm until DGEX spits out 25" bullseyes from ATL to GSP!
 
Alot of us bank on winter for model watching crazy entertainment and models come down and all signs show good for snow and then all that's kinda falls flat the day of or day before... that's been trend for most in south past few years I suppose people a lil on edge for their dream blizzard at this point.
 
Storm5 said:
Hell, if it only were December. That's a beaut on the 12z Euro for sure
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It will be by the time that actually happens! #RUSHEDPATTERNCHANGEBYMODELS
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Didn't make the projected high even though it was sunny all day. I was surprised at how cool it felt even midafternoon.
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My projected high was 52 yesterday but the sun never came out so temps never made it out of the 40s. I believe 47 was the high which is 12 degrees below normal for my area. I love this weather!
 
metwannabe said:
I swear if we don't have a decent winter with a good winter storm or two board wide this place is going to go completely bonkers....
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I don't know. I wouldn't mind days like today for the majority of the winter. 60s and sunshine feels great !
 
olhausen said:
My projected high was 52 yesterday but the sun never came out so temps never made it out of the 40s. I believe 47 was the high which is 12 degrees below normal for my area. I love this weather!
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I don't mind a cloudy day every now and then but I prefer the sun to be out. especially in the colder months. Unless of course if its summer then I wouldn't mind it being cloudy because it would make it cooler.
 
GaWx said:
The Arctic continues to be MUCH colder than it was last autumn with it now being 16F colder than it was a year ago! Also, it continues to get closer and closer to normal with it now being only 3 F warmer than normal vs 19 warmer than normal one year ago today and vs a whopping 34 warmer than normal on 11/19/16!! (No that's not a typo.)

Arctic temp. graph day by day for 2017: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

Arctic temp. graph day by day for 2016: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

The Arctic has not had any colder than normal days **in winter** (other than ~1-2 colder on a couple of days) in 3 years and no sustained significant colder than normal in more than 15 years! So, just averaging close to normal for a decent period would be a big victory in this day and age.
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I don't like to just put out "good" news as I want to be perceived as fair and balanced. Today's Arctic update is plain bad as it warmed a whopping 8 F today!

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

The good news is that it is still 16F colder than one year ago today because it also warmed sharply at this time last year:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png
 
GaWx said:
I don't like to just put out "good" news as I want to be perceived as fair and balanced. Today's Arctic update is plain bad as it warmed a whopping 8 F today!

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

The good news is that it is still 16F colder than one year ago today because it also warmed sharply at this time last year:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png
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Fair and balanced. Nice! Now if we could get the media to do the same for both sides.


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For those wanting a chilly rest of the month, you'd better hope that the last 3 EPS runs don't verify closely as they're much warmer than the last few GEFS/GFS runs for the day 10+ period.
 
What did the Euro show? Cant pull up site right now.
 
GaWx said:
For those wanting a chilly rest of the month, you'd better hope that the last 3 EPS runs don't verify closely as they're much warmer than the last few GEFS/GFS runs for the day 10+ period.
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And here comes reality, Arctic is warming, models are warming, winter was fun... now time for spring..... kidding, don’t attack.
 
Another beautiful day! Topped out at 59 a bit ago, back down to 57.6 now. Gotta love this weather! Woke up to 36.6 this morning! :-D
 
Euro on an island all by itself!?? Call me Wilson ,cause I'm on that island
 
GaWx said:
For those wanting a chilly rest of the month, you'd better hope that the last 3 EPS runs don't verify closely as they're much warmer than the last few GEFS/GFS runs for the day 10+ period.
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Larry,
I'm going to be at best sophomoric here, if not downright fanciful ... and flippant ...
...warm up there is still cold, and pushes what was the real cold down here ... :confused::eek:o_O

Least it sounds good, and ridiculously optimistic ... :oops:
 
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pcbjr said:
Larry,
I'm going to be sophomoric here, if not down right fanciful ...
...warm up there is still cold, and pushes the cold down here ... :confused::eek:o_O
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Well, these EPS runs show literally warmer than average for the SE US days 10+. However, I personally feel that even the very warmest days in November are usually more enjoyable than the coolest days in summer. So, warm days in Nov usually don't bother me even if I prefer cooler. So, enjoy all Nov days as that is the only Nov wx you get.
 
GaWx said:
Well, these EPS runs show literally warmer than average for the SE US days 10+. However, I personally feel that even the very warmest days in November are usually more enjoyable than the coolest days in summer. So, warm days in Nov usually don't bother me even if I prefer cooler. So, enjoy all Nov days as that is the only Nov wx you get.
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You take me far too seriously on this one!
Seemed a little humor was in order!
Agree wholeheartedly; just think back a mere 365 ...
 
pcbjr said:
You take me far too seriously on this one!
Seemed a little humor was in order!
Agree wholeheartedly; just think back a mere 365 ...
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Agreed! Also, if the GEFS/GFS is right and EPS wrong, it won't be warm in late Nov.
 
Hmmm, colder and drier on the 23rd on 18z GFS...what will that mean later down the road? Stay tuned.

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Man next week looks a little warmer than what I've seen lately but boy does the hammer drop Thanksgiving on cold.
 
Oh yeah, look at those 2m temp anomalies, valid on Thanksgiving afternoon.
a35b0605e25800b730139a8b5acc048c.jpg


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SD said:
Fairly meh hard to tell if wetbulbing would be a close to wintry profile
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That would be cold enough for some sleet to mix in with the cold rain at times. I'm definitely keeping a watch on the 23rd/24th time frame for sure.

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The GEFS is predicting a sub -3 AO in a few days. That has happened in about 20% of Novembers since 1950. Here are the other Novembers with a day or more of sub -3:

2010, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1962, 1959, 1955, 1952, 1950

After throwing out El Ninos and warm neutral, we're left with these 8: 2010, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1962, 1955, 1950
Of these 8 Decembers in the SE US, 5 were very cold (2010, 2000, 1985, 1962, 1950), one was cool (1955), and 2 were quite warm (1998, 1984).

Of these 8, the closest ENSOwise to 2017 appear to be these: 2000, 1984, and 1950
Of these 3 Decembers, two were very cold (2000 and 1950) and 1 was quite warm (1984).

Conclusion: For cold 3.4 ENSO, there appears to be a small correlation between a November with a day or more of -3 AO and a quite cold Dec. in the SE US. I think it is safe to hypothesize this small correlation because the only other very cold SE Dec. with cold ENSO was 1983 and even it had a -2.510 AO day in Nov. Here's hoping.
 
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