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Pattern November Knock-Out

SD said:
This is trying to go all - nao
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Webb, maybe you can work us up something this winter, just like you did during hurricane season. Seems to work fine then LOL!!
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, I have to wonder what a 1038 - 1039 high and 850 temps up there reaching -15 to -25 across a lot of the area could do down this way. I remember just over a week ago the temps were originally forecast to be in the upper 40s and with clouds, barely hit 40. If we get a wedge in overnight and clouds roll in, then we can do the usual "forget the models" and expect a chilly day.
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I was going to bring up this same example. We were supposed to be in the low 50s, but it only got up to 43 here. Not impossible cold for late October, but still odd. Probably the best taste of Winter we've gotten so far this season and winter isn't even here for another month from now. I find CAD events to be tricky to forecast in long leads and by long leads, I mean more than 24hrs. lol
 
If this winter is anything like 1998-99, parts of NC and SC will be in for a rough time with ice at least once. Possibly a couple of times. Just not in November though.
 
94 again yesterday(2 all-time November highs in 3 days, 3 out of the first 5 days of the month record highs), Wednesday may fail to get out of the 40s with a cold rain

Gotta love Texas weather :rolleyes:
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We millennials...;)

It's a baby step and still a long way off from actual winter, but things seem to be looking better in November both for November and in the long haul.
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Yep, there are a lot of us here.
It is a good sign for sure that we are seeing this pattern. Getting cold on this side of the world to get snow pack established in Canada will help further down the road. If this year is a year of CAD, we should have no issue getting at least one ice storm and lots of cold days to break up the warm ones. Meanwhile, saw a second woolly worm that said the same as the last one, so mild winter it likely is.
 
Brent said:
94 again yesterday(2 all-time November highs in 3 days, 3 out of the first 5 days of the month record highs), Wednesday may fail to get out of the 40s with a cold rain

Gotta love Texas weather :rolleyes:
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I went to Austin several years back in October for a wedding and it was 90 the day I flew in. The next day there was a 50 degree temp drop and it was 40s and rain. So much for the outdoor wedding. Lol.
 
SD said:
I'm going to enjoy the upper 20s Saturday morning.

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Your winning! Rain today and your 20s this weekend! I have not seen either, in quite awhile! :(
That drought monitor tho!
 
We will see warm sunny days before winter is all said and done. Enjoy the cold while it last


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WeatherWatch said:
Nobody in the south should be expecting to have a snowy winter. If you want a snowy winter, move way north.

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I would imagine they mean it in perspective of how winter is in the south. Nothing wrong with that statement honestly as it's all about perception based on where you are lol. It could snow twice here and be considered a snowy winter *shrugs*
 
WeatherWatch said:
Nobody in the south should be expecting to have a snowy winter. If you want a snowy winter, move way north.

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We might not have a full " snowy winter" but with good signs continue, we could eventually have a snowy or icy storm or two.
 
What I mean snowy, is that it stays cold and most weather systems bring more snow vs rain. Obviously, as we know we get more rain events vs snow events here in the south and it doesn't stay cold long enough to support snow.

A better term to use in the south is, wintry. It could be more wintry this winter vs warmer than avg. temps. Wintry does not necessarily mean that the winter will be 'snowy.'

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WeatherWatch said:
What I mean snowy, is that it stays cold and most weather systems bring more snow vs rain. Obviously, as we know we get more rain events vs snow events here in the south and it doesn't stay cold long enough to support snow.

A better term to use in the south is, wintry. It could be more wintry this winter vs warmer than avg. temps. Wintry does not necessarily mean that the winter will be 'snowy.'

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If you are speaking in those terms, Nina years could be considered snowier than Nino due to Nino's producing more precipitation, often rain. Nina's lack moisture and usually if there is much precipitation it could be snow given the right pattern. Still more rain events than snow events, but let's not get into another war of meanings.

Meanwhile, the GFS has another fantasy storm for us to look at.
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accu35 said:
My wife isn't into weather, so she told me yesterday, "if you want a blizzard go to dairy queen. LOL!!!
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Hahah, that's funny right there. Well it's true, DQ have blizzards all year long.

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No term war here, I'm not saying that the south can't have a snowy winter. Sure the south can have snowy winters. If area's in the south receive above avg. snow, than yes, it's considered as a snowy winter. But, as we know it, every winter doesn't have above avg. snow accumulations. I'm just saying that there are more raw, wet wintry days in the winter here than days with snow.

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I've been doing some research into winter weather in TN and it's amazing how cold it used to get there. Nashville had a high of 2 degrees on 1-12-1918 and once went through a stretch of 12 days where it didn't get above freezing !
 
The CAD high is intensifying yet again on the past few euro runs. A 1036 over New England at this time of the year is pretty nuts. I'm really starting to think that someone in central NC will at least see freezing drizzle or light freezing rain this weekend...
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AO tanking in the mid to long term.
PNA doesn't go positive. As of now, this means that the cold would be short lived and it would come in waves.
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JB tweeted about what the Brazilian model is showing for winter, which of course is wintry (when is it not?/cold bias). I notice that his recent tweets aren't suggesting anything about warmth this winter, including what he showed Joe D'Aleo is saying. I wish JB had credibility for being objective instead of being cold biased in winter. :(
 
Posted on other board: Robert

WxSouth
6 hours ago
will amp back up once again in November, probably producing a strong Greenland Block at some point. With Canada being so cold, and much more deeply snow-covered than last season, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that big Arctic Highs coming down when there's a western ridge, eastern trough, will simply mean very cold air, especially comparing to the weakness of any cold last Winter.
Already long range GFS model has shown way off in fantasy land, the big Ridge once or twice and actually was in the ballpark, so I'll watch it carefully this season to see how it handles any tall western Ridges again, and /or Greenland Blocks/North Pole blocks.
Long story short....the Northern Hemishere is probably poised to turn cold in 3 distinct areas by late November 1) lower Canada to the Eastern US. 2) Western Europe 3) Russia..
The long range Climate type of models continue to paint a Cold Canada most of the Winter and are beginning to look colder in more of the U.S.. Actually North America is the center of the Cold on them when compared to the entire Northern Hemisphere, for the Winter, so we'll see if those are correct. (exact opposite of last 2 seasons).
So with the current relative mild air still winning out most of the Southeast and East Coast, and a quick cool down on the way, only to repeat back to warmth, I don't think it'll stay this way. Things will constantly change about (thats weather), but eventually yes it will turn very cold where its been so warm this Fall so far.
Image: GFS showing a giant block in several runs lately in the extended. Consequently, also showing an extreme surface high pressure over Greenland ..one of the strongest surface highs I've ever seen forecast, we'll see. PS....that high won't be the one bringing down the Eastern Cold later in November though, as it's just a response to how the closed ridge aloft sets up way up north.
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NCSNOW said:
Posted on other board: Robert

WxSouth
6 hours ago
will amp back up once again in November, probably producing a strong Greenland Block at some point. With Canada being so cold, and much more deeply snow-covered than last season, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that big Arctic Highs coming down when there's a western ridge, eastern trough, will simply mean very cold air, especially comparing to the weakness of any cold last Winter.
Already long range GFS model has shown way off in fantasy land, the big Ridge once or twice and actually was in the ballpark, so I'll watch it carefully this season to see how it handles any tall western Ridges again, and /or Greenland Blocks/North Pole blocks.
Long story short....the Northern Hemishere is probably poised to turn cold in 3 distinct areas by late November 1) lower Canada to the Eastern US. 2) Western Europe 3) Russia..
The long range Climate type of models continue to paint a Cold Canada most of the Winter and are beginning to look colder in more of the U.S.. Actually North America is the center of the Cold on them when compared to the entire Northern Hemisphere, for the Winter, so we'll see if those are correct. (exact opposite of last 2 seasons).
So with the current relative mild air still winning out most of the Southeast and East Coast, and a quick cool down on the way, only to repeat back to warmth, I don't think it'll stay this way. Things will constantly change about (thats weather), but eventually yes it will turn very cold where its been so warm this Fall so far.
Image: GFS showing a giant block in several runs lately in the extended. Consequently, also showing an extreme surface high pressure over Greenland ..one of the strongest surface highs I've ever seen forecast, we'll see. PS....that high won't be the one bringing down the Eastern Cold later in November though, as it's just a response to how the closed ridge aloft sets up way up north.
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He's almost like our own Southern JB!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CAD high is intensifying yet again on the past few euro runs. A 1036 over New England at this time of the year is pretty nuts. I'm really starting to think that someone in central NC will at least see freezing drizzle or light freezing rain this weekend...
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I think it'll come down to timing. GSP boys saying Sunday night arrival of precip at the earliest, othe models saying Monday. It is looking like a very cold weekend for a lot of people, for sure
 
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