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Pattern November Knock-Out

GaWx said:
Holy wow, look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs at hour 150!
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And at 168...
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So it looks like the 12z GFS brings back the cold temps we saw much earlier on their runs on the same dates.

then warms up about a day earlier, making it transient, but hey, if this sticks maybe the GFS wasn't so off after all.
 
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GaWx said:
Holy wow, look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs at hour 150!
Click to expand...
Larry,
It pretty much continues through the entire run. It's only one run, so we need to be cautious, but with a couple more like that, you and I may need a light sweater ... ;)
Best!
Phil

PS - Keep the good news coming ... :p


PPS - Frost on the roof this AM at sunrise ...
 
That system on the last few days of this month that cuts off to the Mid-West amplifies and almost stalls out due to the strong blocking. Not going to get a south and southeast trend with that system with ridging like that, good gracious. As of now, the NAO stays negative, heading towards neutral as December closes in. Will that system trend further south and southeastward? It's too early right now, but with the NAO not being significantly positive and the PNA isn't significantly negative, it may trend "somewhat" south and southeastward, but probably not enough to bring snow for the southeastern US.
 
WeatherWatch said:
That system on the last few days of this month that cuts off to the Mid-West amplifies and almost stalls out due to the strong blocking. Not going to get a south and southeast trend with that system with ridging like that, good gracious. As of now, the NAO stays negative, heading towards neutral as December closes in. Will that system trend further south and southeastward? It's too early right now, but with the NAO not being significantly positive and the PNA isn't significantly negative, it may trend "somewhat" south and southeastward, but probably not enough to bring snow for the southeastern US.
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Earlier you said zonal and boring the rest of the month!? And warm!
 
GaWx said:
Holy wow, look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs at hour 150!
Click to expand...
I know your just the messenger, but we know how this ends when it's go time! Won't be nearly that cold, just a hunch! Euro won't be nearly as cold either!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I know your just the messenger, but we know how this ends when it's go time! Won't be nearly that cold, just a hunch! Euro won't be nearly as cold either!
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Man just stay positive, its not that bad now. I'm living the "NOW" time and its a nice cold 47 degrees out. Enjoy while you have;)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Average to slightly above.
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To me this is the difference already from last year. These "warm ups" are getting us back or at worse slightly above normal. Saturday we had a howling SW wind ahead of the cold front and it got the high back up to normal, then after the front right back below. that's a far cry and much better than cold frontal passages that knock us back down to near normal like last year, hopefully it continues

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GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is also colder than its prior run for the SE early to mid next week!
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Big relaxation at the end of the run; but it's been doing that SER relaxation at 216 to 240 for days, and when the next run comes, what was 216 to 240 a couple days ago (what becomes 144 to 168) is much different. This is all too ... pick a word ...
 
pcbjr said:
Big relaxation at the end of the run; but it's been doing that SER relaxation at 216 to 240 for days, and when the next run comes, what was 216 to 240 a couple days ago (what becomes 144 to 168) is much different. This is all too ... pick a word ...
Click to expand...
Lelaxation, what a wonderful thing:)
 
Tarheel1 said:
Earlier you said zonal and boring the rest of the month!? And warm!
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Rest of this month appears to be boring overall. Yes, last night the 0z GFS had a zonal look at the beginning of December, but I didn't say that there will be a zonal flow for sure. Zonal flow doesn't necessarily mean a "scorcher."

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