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Pattern November Knock-Out

Lucy Ricardo or someone, can you please do some splainin' to the Euro ...
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The thing that concerns me is, just how warm the West is! We all know that'll come East at some point! The question is, how long! You know it's coming cause we are the only ones that can torch 4 months in a row! :(
 
pcbjr said:
Lucy Ricardo or someone, can you please do some splainin' to the Euro ...
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Take it verbatim, cause it's the only one that didn't forecast the Deep-Freeze Thanksgiving, and it's right! All hail the King
 
Tarheel1 said:
The thing that concerns me is, just how warm the West is! We all know that'll come East at some point! The question is, how long! You know it's coming cause we are the only ones that can torch 4 months in a row! :(
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That's why from a lifetime I preach that we don't want "winter" until mid-December; winter "typically" only lasts 6 weeks (if we get one to begin with); sure, there are exceptions, but with years upon my head ... I go with usual history (and if things are lining up right (not this year) , I figure history is re-writing itself) ... :confused:
 
Tarheel1 said:
The thing that concerns me is, just how warm the West is! We all know that'll come East at some point! The question is, how long! You know it's coming cause we are the only ones that can torch 4 months in a row! :(
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But I assume you'd agree that you really should want a warm west this winter overall due to that meaning western ridging/+PNA type blocking and downstream E US trough dominating. I like to see western US warmth in general, especially near the west coast.
 
pcbjr said:
That's why from a lifetime I preach that we don't want "winter" until mid-December; winter "typically" only lasts 6 weeks (if we get one to begin with); sure, there are exceptions, but with years upon my head ... I go with usual history (and if things are lining up right (not this year) , I figure history is re-writing itself) ... :confused:
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Yes, absent El Nino, you pretty rarely get more than 4 to maybe 6 week periods of cold domination even in overall cool DJFs because often the pattern needs to reset though on occasion you may get something like two 4 week periods during DJF.
 
going be honest.... a torch isnt a bad thing right now.... trough has been sitting just to far east to do us much good... its best now to waste this pattern now before the goods start in for late december and january and early february .... think thats what going to happen... see the trough start to back up towards the west some like central plains... that will carve out a big surface low pressure system in middle country and that will help to drag down the mother load of cold later and set the stage for some fun...
 
Made this MSLP/thickness (left) & 700 hPa specific humidity & wind (right) in ERA-20C to show the evolution of this historic winter storm in December 1930... The depth and strength of the CAD dome during this event was extremely unusual, to have a 1034 parent high over Virginia & get 1.5-2 feet of snow out of a CAD event (mind you that's about 2x as much wintry QPF (equivalent) vs even the December 2002 ice storm, that's something...
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GaWx said:
Yes, absent El Nino, you pretty rarely get more than 4 to maybe 6 week periods of cold domination even in overall cool DJFs because often the pattern needs to reset though on occasion you may get something like two 4 week periods during DJF.
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Yeah, we can't expect every winter (even a good one) to be like 1935-36 where for 10 weeks straight (minus a few days) temperatures remained below 60F here in much of central NC & it snowed several times, nearly evenly spaced out over a period of a few months...
 
Even after all this cool weather the past few weeks, we still haven't erased the impressive +temp anomalies during the first several days of the month...
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Webberweather53 said:
Even after all this cool weather the past few weeks, we still haven't erased the impressive +temp anomalies during the first several days of
/QUOTE]
RDU is -2 for November and if I counted right been at or below normal 12 straight days. Prior to today being calculated in. Which was way BN
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Unless something changes a lot I think some of those areas will end up at an anomaly of right around normal for this month.
 
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