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Pattern November Knock-Out

I found 3 GEFS members from the 6z runs from today that have a chance at snow between the 26th and the 28th. Thickness values do support snow on mostly all 3 members. Member 1 brings a decent snow for NC. Member 3 is dropping the hammer with the cold. 516 thickness value making it's way down into the southeast which is likely overdone with some overrunning (snow.) Member 4 shows a weak Gulf low with the cold air coming down from the NW as the low is pushing off to the east.
 
Late bloomer, OTS it goes. That was the system that some of the 6z GEFS has on some of it's members.
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Hypothetical ?... Would you be willing to see Duke win the National Title if that punched your ticket to a major snowstorm?
Give me A10", pure snowstorm this winter, Duke can win the next 5 consecutive championships! Seriously! The chances of repeating, are about 5%, so I'm willing to sacrifice!
 
I hope one of these days before the Golden Trumpet sounds, we get a board-wide winter storm ala January 1988.

Even better than 1/1988 would be a truer boardwide (regular posters) event like 2/1899, which would also include Phil. Here's to
hoping. It has happened before and will happen again. Otherwise, I'm sure Phil, like me, wouldn't mind seeing another 1/1977 or 12/1989.
 
The climate is warming so fast we probably won’t see those kinds of events again. Pretty sad really.


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KSAV is currently between +1 and +2 for the month to date. Per model runs out 2 weeks, they will have a halfway decent chance to finally break the record long streak of warmer than normal months. They haven't had a colder than normal month since way back in January of 2016, when they were barely below normal (-0.6)! Before that, they hadn't had a below normal month since Feb of 2015! So, they have had only one of the previous 32 months colder than normal!
 
The climate is warming so fast we probably won’t see those kinds of events again. Pretty sad really.

Hopefully, there will be a reversal of at least some of the warming in coming decades with the help of the anticipated upcoming solar grand minimum/quietest in 200+ years. However, it remains to be seen how much a grand minimum would help. Some here like Webb as well as many scientists don't think even a grand solar minimum would be able to reverse more than a pretty small portion of the warming based on the estimated direct effects of solar variance. I'm remaining open minded and hopeful, however, that much larger indirect effects (like cosmic rays and/or something else that is unknown) could add to the small direct effect and result in a significant cooling. I'm not saying it will. I'm just openminded about it.

Regardless, even if we can't get much of a cooling, extreme wintry events will still occur but likely at lower frequency. Food for thought: In 12/1989, KSAV had a major snowstorm that tied the heaviest snow there back all of the way to the mid 1800s. This snow was not accompanied by temperatures in the borderline low to mid 30s or even near 30 or even frigid (for SAV snow) mid to upper 20s. They had LOW 20s and upper teens during the entire 24 hour+ snow!! I assume folks understand my point with this example.
 
Hopefully, there will be a reversal of at least some of the warming in coming decades with the help of the anticipated upcoming solar grand minimum/quietest in 200+ years. However, it remains to be seen how much a grand minimum would help. Some here like Webb as well as many scientists don't think even a grand solar minimum would be able to reverse more than a pretty small portion of the warming based on the estimated direct effects of solar variance. I'm remaining open minded and hopeful, however, that much larger indirect effects (like cosmic rays and/or something else that is unknown) could add to the small direct effect and result in a significant cooling. I'm not saying it will. I'm just openminded about it.

Regardless, even if we can't get much of a cooling, extreme wintry events will still occur but likely at lower frequency. Food for thought: In 12/1989, KSAV had a major snowstorm that tied the heaviest snow there back all of the way to the mid 1800s. This snow was not accompanied by temperatures in the borderline low to mid 30s or even near 30 or even frigid (for SAV snow) mid to upper 20s. They had LOW 20s and upper teens during the entire 24 hour+ snow!! I assume folks understand my point with this example.
That was a tough one living near CLT at the time! Mary a flurry, barely a cloud storm! But man that was some cold air!!
 
Believing Global Warming doesn't automatically mean a Al Gore fan or even a democrat. In fact, I'm not even remotely close to being a fan of Gore... but I'm really starting to wonder about GW, and the effects of it.
It's all cyclical! There will be another ice age in the next 500 to 10000 years! On topic, the nextest, most coldest, cold outbreak, is only 2 weeks away! :(
 
Believing Global Warming doesn't automatically mean a Al Gore fan or even a democrat. In fact, I'm not even remotely close to being a fan of Gore... but I'm really starting to wonder about GW, and the effects of it.

Yeah but spewing mess like he did when the past ten years has had multiple big snow storms is laughable.
 
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