Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

[$alt]

How can the ICON be so far off vs GFS? I like the ICON model, personally, as it seems to perform well in mby.

 

[1300m]

It’s over boys. On to the next pattern head fake View attachment 154206

 

[1300m]

How can the ICON be so far off vs GFS? I like the ICON model, personally, as it seems to perform well in mby.

00Z ICON/Euro were pretty much in agreement out to 144. And I'm actually not a big fan of the ICON, personally haha, so I'm not trying to defend it.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[NCSNOW]

Think we have hit our high temp today. Sitting at 42 degrees and Rain. Raw outside

 

[EmersonGA]

.06”

Looks like more headed your way. I was hoping for a half inch out of this, looks like maybe .1 or .2 if I’m lucky now.

I'm at 1.82" and still more coming down. How did you do?

 

[WXinCanton]

1.4 over here, I'll take it. 45 degrees

 

[Rain Cold]

00Z ICON/Euro were pretty much in agreement out to 144. And I'm actually not a big fan of the ICON, personally haha, so I'm not trying to defend it.
View attachment 154211

View attachment 154212

That looks familiar. It would be nice to know what causes this pattern to dominate every cold season, regardless of ENSO, QBO, solar, or whatever else.

The new toy that seems to predict everythinis now is the MJO, and one could point to it living in unfavorable phases. But obviously, that has not always been the case throughout history. Something is clearly influencing that behavior.

The 6z GFS looks a lot better, and the Euro eventually does cool down in the east. But we're talking toward the end of the run again.

 

[LukeBarrette]

37 and rain this morning…

 

[Ron Burgundy]

1.4 over here, I'll take it. 45 degrees

1.34” @ 48 F

#cropsRsaved

 

[superjames1992]

Looks like 11/28 (Update: looks like this was in 2009 not 2008 like their chart shows if you hover over it in the tool) is the all-time latest first freeze at RDU. (Source: https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/climate/freeze-explorer/)

View attachment 154178

View attachment 154177

2009-10 was a great winter, so I guess maybe it bodes well.

 

[SASQUATCH]

That looks familiar. It would be nice to know what causes this pattern to dominate every cold season, regardless of ENSO, QBO, solar, or whatever else.

The new toy that seems to predict everythinis now is the MJO, and one could point to it living in unfavorable phases. But obviously, that has not always been the case throughout history. Something is clearly influencing that behavior.

The 6z GFS looks a lot better, and the Euro eventually does cool down in the east. But we're talking toward the end of the run again.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Wudge wodge wedge woodge

 

[Mitch West]

This is a really good model so we should get rain switching to snow next Thursday morning for sure.

 

[1300m]

2009-10 was a great winter, so I guess maybe it bodes well.

I like your positivity lol. And you're not wrong, 2009-10 was amazing from a cold and pattern perspective. That is pretty wild to think that the 6th coldest winter all-time at RDU started out with the latest fall freeze on record. I'll confess I did not know (or had forgotten) that until now so thanks for bringing this up haha!

 

[J.C.]

I'm at 1.82" and still more coming down. How did you do?

I got to spend a whole 18 hours at home from Spain after driving to Durham, so I’m not able to check my physical gauge, but the tempest shows 1.1”. If I had to guess, 1.2-1.3”.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Perfect scenario for mountain snow from the Canadian model.