• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

18z GFS says to keep the shorts out for Thanksgiving. Seems like the models are starting to home in on this look.

Surface temps late afternoon Thanksgiving:

1732400361425.png
 
Turkey day looking mostly warm on the GFS in the southeast as the front approaches with the exception of TN, N MS, far N AL/GA/SC, and about half of NC. A pretty solid fropa seems to be in store of the wee hours of Black Friday with some NW flow snow.

Still looking cold after TG
 
From RAH:
**********cut from LR discussion*******************
The low-level flow will quickly turn S/SE on Wednesday as the
surface high moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. So high temperatures,
while cooler than Tuesday, will still be slightly above normal, in
the upper-50s to mid-60s. Expect increasing clouds from the west as
a southern stream shortwave moves from the Central Plains into the
TN Valley on Thursday and Thursday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF
also depict a surface low riding along the front, which will lift
back north as a warm front. This unfortunately likely means a wet
and chilly Thanksgiving is on tap for the area. However, exact
details are still uncertain as the ECMWF depicts a more wound-up
area of low pressure moving well to our north and west, while the
GFS shows multiple waves of low pressure moving directly over the
Carolinas on Thursday and Thursday night. A farther north track like
the ECMWF/EPS would result in less widespread rain but more of a
convective threat that ends Thursday evening, while the GFS/GEFS
produce heavier rain but less instability (especially north) with
rain continuing into early Friday. As a result, the temperature
forecast is also highly uncertain, so for now take a middle of the
ground approach with forecast highs ranging from upper-50s far NW to
upper-60s far SE.
 
18Z EURO has temps in the mid 60’s mid morning on Thanksgiving and low 50’s by the late afternoon here. GFS, ICON, CMC have it coming in the evening. We are doing thanksgiving that afternoon and evening here so I’m rooting for the temps to collapse similar to the EURO. Nothing like thanksgiving dinner when it’s cold and Christmas lights look brighter and better when it’s cold.
 
iGRXY said:
18Z EURO has temps in the mid 60’s mid morning on Thanksgiving and low 50’s by the late afternoon here. GFS, ICON, CMC have it coming in the evening. We are doing thanksgiving that afternoon and evening here so I’m rooting for the temps to collapse similar to the EURO. Nothing like thanksgiving dinner when it’s cold and Christmas lights look brighter and better when it’s cold.
Click to expand...
I just need dry. Ill suck it up and wear shorts and im as pro cold as they come. But 11 - 330ish I really need dry
 
Euro has rain at 12z triad and out by 18z. See how she goes:

I believe 12z=7AM and 18Z= 12 noon. One of you Gurus correct me if I'm wrong.

GFS has 24 straight hours of Showers from sunrise Thursday into Black Friday. 3/4 inch qpf. Ugh

see how she trends

1732537951396.png
 

Attachments

  • 1732537918869.png
    1732537918869.png
    549.3 KB · Views: 16
clipped out of RAH's long term discussion:
"It`s worth noting that the secondary fropa on Sunday should be a dry one, with the overall
sensible weather being cold and dry from Friday through Monday. If
Sunday`s secondary fropa would have more moisture to work with,
perhaps we`d be discussing p-type concerns, but for now it looks
dry."

18z GFS for mid-morning on Sunday:
1732585470613.png

After last year, I would call flurries a win.
 
Wet Turkey Update Triad: qpf from 7AM-2PM: Rooting for the 6z Icon, has zilch. Wettest I'm finding is about a tenth of an inch max on euro an Nam and they dont precipitate the entire 6 hour window. The Canadian short range is the wettest/outlier. GFS still lollygags with the moisture/front push. but is only a tenth qpf as well.

To my west, most likely Triad early evening time looks dry.
 
When I get done chasing this rain away from MBY between 11-3 Turkey day. Im gonna go rope in that 12/5 snowstorm off the Euro AI for all of us.

Love the trends. These are 12 hour qpf maps through 3pm (18Z ) Turkey Day. Im the only desperado with 25 coming over that this matters to probably. But in case there's another glutton for punishment with the outlaws inbound, here's the latest from 12z runs today.

The RDPS,ICON and Ukmet aen;t pretty. put a stripe of .10 over all us same time frame. But GFS,Nam and Canadian Op singing a pretty tune. Bottom line Jury is still out. will be mild and cloudy, no doubt.

1732641371298.png


1732641411228.png
1732641456796.png
 
Temps look like they’re going to be crashing here between noon and 2. Probably get up to the mid 60’s before the front passes. Low to mid 50’s by 4 when people will be showing up here and mid 40’s around 8-9 when they’ll be leaving
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top