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Pattern November 2023

SnowNiner said:
I'm to the point where whatever my forecast low is, I add a 2-3 degrees to my expectations. Thankfully though that doesn't seem to apply to when there's a winter storm. NWS seems to get pretty darn close to the surface temp during a storm. Odd, but my observation. No idea why the distinction.
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Yeah, GSP seems normally does really well with temperatures in my location which is what makes the last couple mornings surprising. This morning it made a little more since because the clouds moved a while earlier than expected which held temps up, but yesterday morning they had gone a good 5 degrees or so below the coldest guidance (I’m at the point of not ever considering temperatures on the CMC with how bad it’s cold bias is).
 
25-16-26 last 3 nights here, last night would've been colder but it was 25 at 11:30 pm, then temps rose to 29 by midnight, actually rose to 34 by 4 am before crashing back to 27 just before sunrise (felt a little breeze this morning I guess that kept temps in check last night). Times are boring when I can give that much pbp on overnight temps Lol
 
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