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Pattern November 2023

Well then

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Chazwin said:
Obviously it’s the op GFS so take with a grain of salt, but there’s a fairly strong coastal low that goes up into the 50/50 position and is there as a wave is coming out of Texas a couple days later.
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It's not always right, but get the euro on board then it's more believable
 
I just got a chance to look at the teleconnections for the first time in a few days and gotta say that maybe, just maybe there might be some hope for the end of the month and first few days of December. The AO and NAO are both forecast to stay consistently negative and the PNA staying positive after dipping close to neutral later this week. The MJO looks like it’s moving around in phases 2 and 3 but low amp. Honestly this a look that I would make me think some southeast winter storm chances would be likely at the end of December and into January. The problem now is that I just don’t know that there’s enough cold air available in Canada yet
 
Any thoughts on this system splitting across the Apps with the convection staying to the south and the stratus form rain breaking off to the north?
 
We may be going to get a little severe weather in the Carolinas and GA outside of the mountains tomorrow. Dewpoints get into the mid 60's with a solid line of convection moving through. The NAM is showing up to around 100-200 of SBCAPE in some areas and shear will favorable. The big question of course is if the CAD breaks or not. The NAM breaks it for most of us, but it is probably too aggressive in wedge erosion.

From GSP

As the cyclone moves northward toward the eastern Great Lakes,
low-level flow will veer slightly by afternoon and the dynamic lift
will diminish from the west. Some of both will continue more or less
to the end of the period at 00z Wed. The warm nose above the wedge
will sharpen during the morning, allowing some MUCAPE to develop. A
slight chance of thunder is included for most of the area in turn;
locally higher precip rates could result. Severe weather becomes
a concern wherever the wedge is able to erode. As noted above, one
can make a fantastic case for CAD becoming established over the more
wedge-prone areas of the CWA, but recent model trends suggest the
wedge could be only hanging on by a thread in our southeasternmost
areas. In particular, small SBCAPE is shown over Shear and helicity
will be supportive of a HSLC tornado threat. 0-1km shear of 35-40
kt, a strong predictor of HSLC tornado threat, overlaps with some
small SBCAPE in the Piedmont, both elements having ticked upward
from what was seen on yesterday`s forecast. The upper pattern is not
classic HSLC, with the main shortwave skirting by to the northwest,
but the thermodynamics and shear are close enough that the SPC
Day 2 Marginal appears justified at least up to I-85. Think the
wedge is going to hold strong enough to minimize the threat north
of there. Peak threat per CAMs likely would be in the 4 pm to 11
pm range.
 
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Chazwin said:
I just got a chance to look at the teleconnections for the first time in a few days and gotta say that maybe, just maybe there might be some hope for the end of the month and first few days of December. The AO and NAO are both forecast to stay consistently negative and the PNA staying positive after dipping close to neutral later this week. The MJO looks like it’s moving around in phases 2 and 3 but low amp. Honestly this a look that I would make me think some southeast winter storm chances would be likely at the end of December and into January. The problem now is that I just don’t know that there’s enough cold air available in Canada yet
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Do you look at the euro ens when you look at teleconnections or gefs? Imo, the euro ens are superior compared to the others. Just a better track record.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Do you look at the euro ens when you look at teleconnections or gefs? Imo, the euro ens are superior compared to the others. Just a better track record.
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I look at the teleconnections updates that NOAA puts out. They use a blend of the ensembles and are as accurate as I think anyone can be be on forecasting them.
 
Watch for a Rogue flake above 3000 ft tomorrow SW NC. Novelty as 540 cool pool washes out overhead passing by.

Then all eyes turn to next Tuesday through the end of the week. Find some SS energy and its not a stretch to score. All 3 Ops have cold air and the GFS has some energy cutting underneath us on Tues, while the Euro has it Thursday. Canadian is stupid cold late next week at least above our heads.


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