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Pattern November 2023

Still do not know about early next week. The GFS still has rain, but it is trending drier. The Euro still has a good bit of rain here, but with a sharp cutoff south of a Columbus GA Raleigh NC line. The cutoff is just south of I-85 on the NAM. Hopefully this does not back off at the last minute like the last threat did.
 
SD said:
That pattern the next week oof good luck. Trough axis trying to load to the west will excited the SER but numerous cold vortices rolling across the US/Can border well keep pressing fronts south. Easy to either be 72 or 38 in that pattern and see why the eps members have snow blips.
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NCSNOW said:
Thats some barking at 240. No bite though.
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Not out of the question. CPC 8-14 day analogs has Dec 4, 2002 lol (3rd image). I believe Fro mentioned it the other day

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MB22 said:
Brings a few inches of snow to KY, WV, VA,DC later in the run.
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Is it a coastal slider or a cutter or an apps runner later in the run. Like does it fizzle or does it go more into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley
 
goon said:
Is it a coastal slider or a cutter or an apps runner later in the run. Like does it fizzle or does it go more into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley
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LP goes from Florence SC to Hatteras to offshore. Snow doesn't get North of New Jersey.
 
NCSNOW said:
Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
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Not sure I buy that east-based Nino/punt Dec forecast. The Pacific is cooling nicely along south American coast and the warmth is showing signs of shifting to the central Pacific. Don't write off any part of this winter just yet... regardless of what the warmist crowd says.
 
cyclogent said:
Ugh, the inevitable drying trend kicking into full gear now...here's the last 5 runs of the GFS. :(


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Yep. That’s been trend. Models start out showing something more rain wise, only dries up as we get closer range … still banking on a dry December and above average temps … after first week January we see changed
 
We had better hope this does not dry up. If it does it'll be dry for a long time yet. The 12z GFS has little rain after this week. The Euro shows the early week system slowly trending north. If this continues it'll take most of the rain out of the Carolinas and GA before long.
 
Jrips2710 said:
If these are the types of model swings we’re getting less than 3 days out there’s no hope for those us tracking this winter ?

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Yeah I've quit worrying about next weekend here. I mean it's not like the models aren't gonna change anyway ?no reason to stress over it

Oh and it's already pretty chilly... Kind of makes me wonder just how cold it will be
 
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