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Pattern November 2023

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Good post. I simply don't understand all the drought panic on here recently. Yes it's been a dry fall, but the growing season is over and many of us are coming off the wettest 4-6 year period on record; AND we're about to enter a Nino. I've just been enjoying a drier stretch for a change.
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at least around here in virginia a lot of rivers have been running very low, especially ones that feed from shenandoah. the area under D3 is getting larger every week. we really haven't had a true gully washer in months. panic may be a strong word but folks have a right to be anxious
 
Still no real agreement about next week. The Euro has most of GA and FLA at .75 or less at day 10 along with upstate SC.
 
73 today at IAD...lol. 6th 70+ degree day this month. Plus a day in the 80's. Northern Virginia has become the new Georgia climate wise. ?

They have had 9 sub 32 degree mornings though. Very very dry.
 
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Chazwin said:
The CMC, ICON and GEFS are starting to beef up rain totals for the Carolinas and northern GA in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
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00z Icon just cut totals in half. 60s behind the front.
 
Going to be interesting to see how much energy gets left behind of the system mid week. Really looking more and more likely it'll be enough to get another wave of rain late Thanksgiving day into Friday/Saturday depending on how fast it kicks out
 
Gfs and cmc are vastly different gfs phases more into the leading trough so what's left behind shears and doesn't do much while the cmc phases less so there's decent amplitude to the trailer and we get a 2nd significant rain event when with the trailer shearing.

That pattern the next week oof good luck. Trough axis trying to load to the west will excited the SER but numerous cold vortices rolling across the US/Can border well keep pressing fronts south. Easy to either be 72 or 38 in that pattern and see why the eps members have snow blips.

No matter what our dry period should be coming to an end. Good time to get your pre emergent out for coverage through early spring. Winter weeds that haven't really had enough water to germinate at going to go crazy
 
SD said:
Gfs and cmc are vastly different gfs phases more into the leading trough so what's left behind shears and doesn't do much while the cmc phases less so there's decent amplitude to the trailer and we get a 2nd significant rain event when with the trailer shearing.

That pattern the next week oof good luck. Trough axis trying to load to the west will excited the SER but numerous cold vortices rolling across the US/Can border well keep pressing fronts south. Easy to either be 72 or 38 in that pattern and see why the eps members have snow blips.

No matter what our dry period should be coming to an end. Good time to get your pre emergent out for coverage through early spring. Winter weeds that haven't really had enough water to germinate at going to go crazy
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Very different solutions coming out of next weekend between them as well. The GFS gets cold building up in Canada but it never really gets tapped into…the coolest air to reach the southeast is basically average temperatures for the end of November. The CMC on the other absolutely unloads the Arctic air into the Northern Plains as many areas see their first sun zero temperatures of the season… it’s more of a glancing show for the southeast but it would be enough to see many of us get down in the teens and lower 20s for lows across the Carolinas northern GA, Tennessee and Virginia
 
Chazwin said:
Very different solutions coming out of next weekend between them as well. The GFS gets cold building up in Canada but it never really gets tapped into…the coolest air to reach the southeast is basically average temperatures for the end of November. The CMC on the other absolutely unloads the Arctic air into the Northern Plains as many areas see their first sun zero temperatures of the season… it’s more of a glancing show for the southeast but it would be enough to see many of us get down in the teens and lower 20s for lows across the Carolinas northern GA, Tennessee and Virginia
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I think we are probably far enough north that normal to below should be the theme with occasional warm days ahead of fronts. I just don't see a great catalyst to drive arctic cold well south but obviously the cmc says otherwise
 
SD said:
I think we are probably far enough north that normal to below should be the theme with occasional warm days ahead of fronts. I just don't see a great catalyst to drive arctic cold well south but obviously the cmc says otherwise
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I agree. Let’s keep in mind that the CMC was also most adamant about cold over Thanksgiving when it was in the 8-10 day range and has obviously backed way off as other models have.
 
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