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Pattern November 2023

EmersonGA said:
Thankfully this hit in the fall when the days are short and cool. We’d be on the news if it was summer.
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I had a work crew set up with heavy trucks in what is a bog in normal to wet weather. The dry paid off for me this time..but when the pattern sets into a split flow with blocking, I don't want to see virga, lol. I had a tracked bobcat buried up over the tracks in the back corner, lol, so if it was really wet I wonder if it acts like quicksand....have the truck pop back up in a few months, like in Alleluia Trail. Already had one gom low soaking all day rain this season, so I want to see a train of those and hope to hit the jackpot with the northern jet pattern....not two day rains then dry for weeks and cold.
 
JHS said:
Yeah, just like we were in 1986 when we had to get hay from the midwest to prevent a major disaster. That was all over the news that summer. 1993 was another rough one too, along with 2002 and especially 2007.
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Yea, it is really dry up here. Good the growing season is over. I was cleaning up after making a batch of beer and the birds were getting realy close to get to any water that was puddling near the workshop. That is what I wonder about. Over populated wildlife (deer), where are they getting water when everything is drying up? Sprinkles tomorrow PM. Next weeks system has been looking better but I still see fail potential.
 
The models are slowly trending drier. I am starting to think next week may just be dry for many of us. The Euro is awful in most of the Carolinas and GA through day 10 and the GFS is fairly dry out to 384 in parts of western NC and SC. We may just be getting set for a 1986 repeat unless things change.
 
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Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
 
NCSNOW said:
Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
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We thought this bout two weeks ago ….December is usually one our driest months too….
 
The last two runs of the GEFS and now the 6z GFS has really backed off on the southern extent of the cold air late next week. It’s not a torch but it’s definitely not showing some of the cold, especially over night lows, it has been showing
 
Chazwin said:
The last two runs of the GEFS and now the 6z GFS has really backed off on the southern extent of the cold air late next week. It’s not a torch but it’s definitely not showing some of the cold, especially over night lows, it has been showing
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To be expected, and also the moisture this coming Tuesday-Wednesday is almost gone on the GFS. Most of us will probably be in the low 60s by the time it verifies.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS run was probably the best look this cool season. Pretty good H5 patternView attachment 137997View attachment 137998
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great signal for this time of year
tennessee storm said:
We thought this bout two weeks ago ….December is usually one our driest months too….
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anecdotal evidence but i think it was 09/10 winter (another el nino year) that wilmington broke their december rainfall record. if you believe the enso paper trail + a little good ole regression to the mean then december can easily be wet
 
J.C. said:
To be expected, and also the moisture this coming Tuesday-Wednesday is almost gone on the GFS. Most of us will probably be in the low 60s by the time it verifies.
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I think that the GFS is having some convective feedback issues in terms of how it’s skipping the moisture over the western Carolinas and GA. The ICON, CMC, EURO, and ensembles still have good amounts going through through those areas. They have all backed off on the cold.
 
Chazwin said:
I think that the GFS is having some convective feedback issues in terms of how it’s skipping the moisture over the western Carolinas and GA. The ICON, CMC, EURO, and ensembles still have good amounts going through through those areas. They have all backed off on the cold.
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You're probably right, the ICON looked very wet.
 
NCSNOW said:
Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
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Good post. I simply don't understand all the drought panic on here recently. Yes it's been a dry fall, but the growing season is over and many of us are coming off the wettest 4-6 year period on record; AND we're about to enter a Nino. I've just been enjoying a drier stretch for a change.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Good post. I simply don't understand all the drought panic on here recently. Yes it's been a dry fall, but the growing season is over and many of us are coming off the wettest 4-6 year period on record; AND we're about to enter a Nino. I've just been enjoying a drier stretch for a change.
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Yeah, while I realize that places further west of me over northern GA and Alabama have been dryer, I would be a lot more concerned about it, if we were going into the middle of spring this dry and not the winter. Despite low lake and pond levels, water tables are still in fairly decent shape and trees are now dormant and not soaking up water.
 
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