Being super picky I'd like to have that ridge axis over NW Canada to really drive the cold into the SE. Where it's at is more of a drop and spread location imo. The 12z eps plumes and averages didn't change a lot vs the 0z and the op is one of the warmer members around and after Thanksgiving.
New year same story. This is what we will see all year with this exact footprint
It's November lol. Calm down
He would have a rough time if we ever get a Jan 24 2000 repeat. Anderson got very little out of it while much of NC and SC got 12+. They did not do very good in late Feb 2004 either when many of us got 12+ again.
I always thought the whole upstate did well with February 2004 storm. I didn’t realize there was a sharp cutoff back that way. Still my favorite snowstorm of all time because it had everything where I was living in southern Cabarrus County at the time… 8” piling up during the day then that upper low just sitting over dumping another 10-12” during the night.
Yeah, most probably don't realize the western upstate; Oconee, Pickens, Anderson, parts of Greenville counties haven't seen a 10 inch snow since March 93 or even Jan 88. Eastern areas have been in on multiple ones; Jan 2000, Feb 2004, Dec 2010, maybe even March 2009. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 were total skips for the NW corner... no more than flurries.
Lots of speculation but the line of nuclear power stations and the continued building around Greenville keep that area as much as 5-7 degrees warmer. That’s why I always say if we have the opportunity for snow or any wintry weather, areas along and west of highway 25 in Greenville back towards Spartanburg and Gaffney have the best chance. There’s been plenty of times my neck of the woods is sitting in the mid 20’s while a place like Seneca or Clemson or Easley can be around freezing at best. And those locations are several miles north of 85.
The mjo going through 8-2 should offer up colder weather opportunities moving forward but Bamwx mentioned that to expect warmer weather in much of December due to mjo progression 3-6. ??Eps on board with a cold Thanksgiving!
That would actually follow along fairly closely to the graphic that Webb posted a few days ago in the Winter Discussion thread. It shows that with a strong El Niño, there is often short period of below average temperatures in the east in the last few days of November into the first few days of December before becoming predominantly milder than average for the rest of December.
I would disagree, at least for my immediate area. Many of those areas are actually cooler than Greenville at the surface. I think it has more to do with the orientation of airflow over the mountains. The cold coming over the mountains doesn't fall straight down, it skips over those immediate areas creating a warmer pocket at the mid levels. Other factors are that precipitation tends to end right as the cold gets to those areas but eastern areas still have more time with the precipitation once the cold is there (see Dec 2010, Feb 2015), we're a bit farther from wedge sources, and too far from the Atlantic in coastal low situations. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 weren't about temps, they were about the low being too far away. All that said, I am just on the edge and still do better than many in the NW corner, and Dacusville tends to do well.
I hope he plays soon for the jets
