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Pattern November 2023

Stevo24 said:
I think we’re starting to see signs of what we’re gonna see most of winter. A lot of coastal lows which is what we want. Just gotta get them to line up with some cold.
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I agree and we’re already seeing signs of that this week with the low in the Gulf and moving east giving beneficial rain to the Gulf coast. I still think outside of the mountains, we will be waiting until January for any legit winter storm threats… I just still don’t see anything other than transient cold shots to work with.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree and we’re already seeing signs of that this week with the low in the Gulf and moving east giving beneficial rain to the Gulf coast. I still think outside of the mountains, we will be waiting until January for any legit winter storm threats… I just still don’t see anything other than transient cold shots to work with.
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Honestly transient cold shots don’t bother me as when the stars align you can really cash in. A perfectly timed December cold shot delivered the biggest snow here since ‘93 in 2017.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly transient cold shots don’t bother me as when the stars align you can really cash in. A perfectly timed December cold shot delivered the biggest snow here since ‘93 in 2017.
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It's funny that the 2 biggest snows I've experienced were in December and March, yet the averages say January and February are snowier.
 
The 6z GFS at the end of Thanksgiving weekend has what would be an absolutely perfectly tracked Gulf low for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate, but it seems to have backed off considerably on the cold air. Even after that system, it looks like it’s just a very quick glancing shot of cold air for the southeast
 
The GFS/GEFS press down harder verse the Eps and CAN/GEPS suites. The Canadian says you need a boat as you head to over the hills and to the woods to Grand mamas house for Turkey day. The GFS Op has snow down in Mexico and pretty chilly air. The CFS gives credence to Chazwin showing Normal to slightly AN as we get to the end of the first week of December into the second week. I'm just trying to nail down the Holliday weekend forecast. Lots of doings that will be dictated by the wx like a lot of folks on here Im sure.

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NCSNOW said:
The GFS/GEFS press down harder verse the Eps and CAN/GEPS suites. The Canadian says you need a boat as you head to over the hills and to the woods to Grand mamas house for Turkey day. The GFS Op has snow down in Mexico and pretty chilly air. The CFS gives credence to Chazwin showing Normal to slightly AN as we get to the end of the first week of December into the second week. I'm just trying to nail down the Holliday weekend forecast. Lots of doings that will be dictated by the wx like a lot of folks on here Im sure.

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Another thing on the Canadian is that it looks like there would be a sizable severe weather outbreak for Georgia and the Carolinas a couple days before Thanksgiving
 
Any cold shots around the holidays would be nice. I’m just ready to fast forward through November into December
 
Ollie Williams said:
This might be interesting.
View attachment 137941
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Looking at the teleconnections, that’s actually a time period that looks like it has a chance to produce. It looks like there would be a +PNA that would be relaxing and going towards slightly negative after a few days in positive territory, and the AO and NAO look to be going slightly negative at the same time. I’m just not sold that there would be much in the way of cold air to work with.
 
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