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Pattern November 2022

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Chazwin said:
I wonder what the earliest measurable snow is on record for DFW. Obviously we know they had one on Thanksgiving 1993 for the Cowboys game.
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I know mid November(November 16-17) 2014 had some because that happened my first winter there (I had just moved at the end of September)... And then it didn't snow again til the end of February ?

Halloween apparently had some before too but I don't think that measured
 
I wonder in the 3rd year La Nina that is rare if we aren't seeing the pattern setting up for winter going forward. Instead of your typical warmth in the fall to cold front loaded winter generally for about 4-6 time span and then switch to warmth and SER in the back half we are gong to short highly active stretches of warm and cold. we have been moving in 2-3 week timeframes of below average with a period of very cold (see September through early October) to now a 2-3 week stretch of warmer and Ridge dominated pattern. Going forward it looks like we are going to switch to a colder and down right winter like pattern for about another 2-3 weeks with another which to warmth for 2 weeks or so in late November-early December. I personally wouldn't mind that pattern. You get some nice upper 60 - low 70 degree days and plenty of CAD while also getting really below average and active stretches of cold and it's not just a single 6 week stretch of trying to get winter weather and cold.
 
iGRXY said:
I wonder in the 3rd year La Nina that is rare if we aren't seeing the pattern setting up for winter going forward. Instead of your typical warmth in the fall to cold front loaded winter generally for about 4-6 time span and then switch to warmth and SER in the back half we are gong to short highly active stretches of warm and cold. we have been moving in 2-3 week timeframes of below average with a period of very cold (see September through early October) to now a 2-3 week stretch of warmer and Ridge dominated pattern. Going forward it looks like we are going to switch to a colder and down right winter like pattern for about another 2-3 weeks with another which to warmth for 2 weeks or so in late November-early December. I personally wouldn't mind that pattern. You get some nice upper 60 - low 70 degree days and plenty of CAD while also getting really below average and active stretches of cold and it's not just a single 6 week stretch of trying to get winter weather and cold.
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That seems to be the general pattern that Robert at Wxsouth is expecting
 
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Very interesting on the EURO last night at the end of its run. Already dropping snow across much of the south. This would be coming in the evening with heavy returns to the west and temps in the mid 30's. This timeframe has been honking at potential onset snow, especially in the mountains.
 
Chazwin said:
With the dry air in place, I wouldn’t be shocked to perhaps see some onset sleet out into the Piedmont as well
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Yep, a sleet shower in November is not that rare. It'll matter how dry/cold the air is as the precipitation starts.
 
iGRXY said:
1668729600-hyp3KuuUfjg.png

Very interesting on the EURO last night at the end of its run. Already dropping snow across much of the south. This would be coming in the evening with heavy returns to the west and temps in the mid 30's. This timeframe has been honking at potential onset snow, especially in the mountains.
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Hmmmmmm, that system doesn't have its I 85 bearings down right.
 
2 lps, vorts next week. Tues into Wed and another Fri. Euro has been putting eggs in 2cnd one,GFS putting its eggs in the first one. Better shot to get column cold enough on 2cnd one I beleive. 7 to 10 day timeframe. Will get sorted out over weekend,once Nicole exits stage right imo.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you think we’re going to see snow next week… you’re probably wrong. Times you shouldn’t get excited about snow is mid November .. it’s always possible but you should never expect anything but an ice cold rain when we are way out of our climo
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I mean mid November is only like a couple weeks from when climo really ramps up. First week of December has produced some big winter events. Does 15 days really make a big difference ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
I mean mid November is only like a couple weeks from when climo really ramps up. First week of December has produced some big winter events. Does 15 days really make a big difference ?
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Maybe not so much in TN, but south of there, yes, it does. I start paying attention after the first week in December.
 
weatherfide said:
Maybe not so much in TN, but south of there, yes, it does. I start paying attention after the first week in December.
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Yes obviously if you live in the mountains you’re prepared for anything as early as November 1st hell even October .. for us low elevation folks .. we wait until at leastttt early December before we can think about dipping our toes in the snow
 
Really starting to pay attention to the tornado threat coming up with Nicole .. could see more in the way of this threat as we get closer to go time due to the location of where the low has been trending
 
__nevii said:
I believe I discussed this with you prior, but there does seem to be a persistent tendency of low height anomalies in the SW North American region — from the Pacific off California, into Baja/NW Mexico and the SW US. I think that plays a role in interfering in the winter cold that would otherwise strike the Atlantic South.

It's not a big deal if the troughs remain in the Baja/nearby Pacific — the flow is effectively zonal from there, so things stay quite mild

But those troughs have a way of "hanging around" in Arizona, New Mexico, and other SW US regions — either as "positive tilt" artifacts or complete bowling balls. These western troughs "bleeding east" set up the situation wherein cold focuses more on Texas, Louisiana, and western Southern states instead of spreading eastward into the Atlantic South states.

As far as mountains, if the Apps are continuously ~5000+ in height (i.e. as opposed to just isolated peaks reaching that point), then that will indeed stop anything up to ~850mb emanating from the west. But, in situations with warm sectors encompassing Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, etc that is west of those ranges, the trough orientation definitely is important.
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Yeah I agree with this. We've seen our fair share of periods of -PNA or neutral PNA and -EPO, which does tend to blunt the eastward progression of troughing. Tropical forcing has not been incredibly favorable for large portions of the cold season. That said, it's not a wise idea reduce the winter pattern to one or two variables. I hope this winter allows for periods of genuine cold making it into the SE and sticking around for a while. I suspect blocking up north will play a significant role here.
 
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