Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

[ATLwxfan]

Atlanta's urban heat island is much more pronounced than virtually any other in the SE US

View attachment 54200

It almost never verifies to that extent. Once you get north of I-85 corridor there’s a good amount of urban forest. My neighborhood in north buckhead is often several degrees cooler than Peachtree road just a mile away.


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[LickWx]

I say we level those mountains and install a new Great Lake

I agree ! The moderating affects in winter from a giant lake that doesn’t freeze over would be epic here in North Carolina . Less cold for me ! Although would make for cool scenarios when it is cold enough to snow.

 

[jimmyrig]

Is this because the data that get fed in are from KATL? I am a mile SE from downtown and our temp seems to be pretty consistent with surrounding readings.

QUOTE="ATLwxfan, post: 343371, member: 72"]
It almost never verifies to that extent. Once you get north of I-85 corridor there’s a good amount of urban forest. My neighborhood in north buckhead is often several degrees cooler than Peachtree road just a mile away.


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[/QUOTE]

 

[J.C.]

Atlanta's urban heat island is much more pronounced than virtually any other in the SE US

View attachment 54200

Whoever inserted the data for this into the new GFS completely over did the heat island. According to this I’m in the island in northern Cobb county, which never verifies.

 

[BufordWX]

00z Nam still going strong on the flurries/snow shower game.

 

[cyclogent]

And the Cumberland Plateau will rob CHA of any stray snow showers... I've seen this movie before (a million times..)..

We won't get the good stuff, but we'll see some action. One thing we do well in the lower elevations of east TN is hang on to low level moisture post-fropa in the winter months, and with 850s dipping to -10C we will likely have measurable amounts. Even if it's only 0.1" of snow, I don't see us getting shut out of this one.

 

[SETNwx]

We won't get the good stuff, but we'll see some action. One thing we do well in the lower elevations of east TN is hang on to low level moisture post-fropa in the winter months, and with 850s dipping to -10C we will likely have measurable amounts. Even if it's only 0.1" of snow, I don't see us getting shut out of this one.

hope not.. One good snow shower with temps in the 30s and I'll call it a success.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

How does the NAM look ?

 

[Deleted member 609]

How does the NAM look ?

Snow in mountains, flurries in Tennessee

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Gfs looks good on backside for alabama and georgia. I can even see the piedmont of nc getting some flakes

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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Wow gfs has a solid little snow shower band in the triad. Interesting

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[BufordWX]

Gfs looks good on backside for alabama and georgia. I can even see the piedmont of nc getting some flakes

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Solid improvement from 18z for sure.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Another nice run for the mountains and western facing slopes in Tennessee. Even got some accumulations down into Dalton GA

 

[BufordWX]

00z GEFS also looked better for that backside precipitation.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

There's actually a handful of decent members on the GEFS for wrap around snow for the piedmont of NC

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[BufordWX]

00z GEFS also looked better for that backside precipitation.View attachment 54232

FWIW a couple members are also developing some snow showers in the Carolinas Tuesday morning.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

FWIW a couple members are also developing some snow showers in the Carolinas Tuesday morning.View attachment 54233

I noticed that as well! Will probably be changed by tomorrow am but fun to see haha

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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Where's @Myfrotho704_ at!

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[Disco_Lemonade]

There's actually a handful of decent members on the GEFS for wrap around snow for the piedmont of NC

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ehh I think moisture will be long gone before any snow producing cold arrives. Snow will be limited strictly to the higher elevations of the NC. That deform band might look epic and a wide spread moisture power house, but come verification time it'll look much more anemic.

But don't sweat it, I've got a suspicion our patience will be rewarded this winter

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

ehh I think moisture will be long gone before any snow producing cold arrives. Snow will be limited strictly to the higher elevations of the NC. That deform band might look epic and a wide spread moisture power house, but come verification time it'll look much more anemic.

You are definitely probably right. Just something fun to see atm haha

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I realize there’s no point in posting 180hr snow maps, but the GFS is still showing some
potential behind wave 2

 

[LovingGulfLows]

0z GFS actually trended colder with the 2nd wave....the 850mb 0c isotherm actually go farther south into GA. The ULL is also a lot further south than the 18z run.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

0z GFS actually trended colder with the 2nd wave....the 850mb 0c isotherm actually go farther south into GA. The ULL is also a lot further south than the 18z run.

That's very true. Surface temps are just a tad too warm but a lot could change!

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[Disco_Lemonade]

You are definitely probably right. Just something fun to see atm haha

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True I still cant wait to bring up the radar and goes imagery and bask in its stormy goodness

 

[SETNwx]

0z GFS actually trended colder with the 2nd wave....the 850mb 0c isotherm actually go farther south into GA. The ULL is also a lot further south than the 18z run.

*shoves all chips in the middle of the table before looking at cards

 

[LovingGulfLows]

That's very true. Surface temps are just a tad too warm but a lot could change!

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The core of the ULL was in Kentucky...now it's centered over far SW NC. Actually a really significant trend southwest in one run.

18z

0z

 

[Clem282340]

The core of the ULL was in Kentucky...now it's centered over far SW NC. Actually a really significant trend southwest in one run.

18z

0z

Can it even go a little further south

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Can it even go a little further south

Possibly....who knows....surface temps are bleh though. You would have to hope the ULL goes over you at night to get cooperating temperatures at and near the surface.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The core of the ULL was in Kentucky...now it's centered over far SW NC. Actually a really significant trend southwest in one run.

18z

0z

It noticed it has tightened up considerably over the last several runs as well fwiw

 

[Clem282340]

Possibly....who knows....surface temps are bleh though. You would have to hope the ULL goes over you at night to get cooperating temperatures at and near the surface.

Looks like Ull is going right over the upstate but there no snow showing on the gfs

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

An absolute absurd amount of disagreement on the GEFS for the second wave

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[accu35]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Watching this little guy around the GLs (same wave euro showed at 12z)

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

00z gfs looks pretty darn chilly

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[Disco_Lemonade]

Man that cold on the GFS seems like it wants to last forever. It just wont quit!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Snowflake watch ?

 

[BufordWX]

CMC showing some snow showers for parts of Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia with wave 2.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Getting a bit more interesting for areas outside the mountains on gefs as well

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Atlanta's urban heat island is much more pronounced than virtually any other in the SE US

View attachment 54200

I don’t understand why the precip cuts off at the NC/SC line in every model.

Mountains cut off the precipitation in the NW flow.

Stephen, also, this is what downslopping does for us. When the wind is coming over the mountains the cold is not only delayed, but we have a downslopping effect. Basically, as the air falls down from the mountains, the moisture gets wringed out by the mountains and dries out. It also compresses and heats up. N Al and GA aren't affected nearly as much due to the orientation of the typical flow, and the surrounding mountains aren't nearly as high so they can still get in on some action. The map webber posted shows this well. Cold west of the mountains and over the mountains, then the cold anomalies end abruptly in the leeside, and you even see a switch to warm anomalies. The cold is able to wrap around the apps to the south some, which is why you can see the cold around the South of ATL. Ain't winter fun in SC?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Stephen, also, this is what downslopping does for us. When the wind is coming over the mountains the cold is not only delayed, but we have a downslopping effect. Basically, as the air falls down from the mountains, the moisture gets wringed out by the mountains and dries out. It also compresses and heats up. N Al and GA aren't affected nearly as much due to the orientation of the typical flow, and the surrounding mountains aren't nearly as high so they can still get in on some action. The map webber posted shows this well. Cold west of the mountains and over the mountains, then the cold anomalies end abruptly in the leeside, and you even see a switch to warm anomalies. The cold is able to wrap around the apps to the south some, which is why you can see the cold around the South of ATL. Ain't winter fun in SC?

Theres not a lot of mountains NW of Atlanta, not the high mountains you see in NE GA and NC so that may help the cold air get to Atlanta easier than the Carolinas.