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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Major difference on 18z gfs in the low on H102 from 12z gfs

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Nick_boynton_ said:
I think you must take a step back with the pattern that lies ahead.. all ensemble runs and model runs aren’t going to be pretty for everyone’s backyard .. and it’s tough to get snow down here this time of year that’s for sure .. but also we’ve seen how bad the ensembles preformed last winter and usually only picked onto things that were 3-4 days out and sometimes models or ensembles wouldn’t even see snow a DAY out .. I’m not too worried about the models this far out especially with the delicate pattern we have down the stove pipe .. but let’s also remember it takes a lot of things to line up for anyone to get a good snow down south at this time of year.. don’t get the hopes too high .. we’re aiming for FLIZZARD action and that in and of its self would be a WIN
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You are absolutely correct. Reading this I’m reminded of what Brad Panovich says he looks for first when it comes to forecasting winter weather... it’s pattern recognition. The pattern certainly seems to be coming in to give at least some of a chance and there are players on the field.
 
Chazwin said:
You are absolutely correct. Reading this I’m reminded of what Brad Panovich says he looks for first when it comes to forecasting winter weather... it’s pattern recognition. The pattern certainly seems to be coming in to give at least some of a chance and there are players on the field.
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Yeah, as much as you guys know I complain. I’m still staying up for the 00z models. Not too far fetched to see something.
 
Really liking the look for wrap around snow on the 18z gfs

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