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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Y’all need to get some of them tear away pants! With buttons up the sides! It’ll save you a lot of $$$
Sucks where wasn’t a mean from the EPS for what euro showed (sounds similar) but the pattern is there ig 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gulf of Alaska ridge = 
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
Gulf of Alaska ridge =
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
View attachment 54166
As bad as it is, I’m happy about the ridge over Canada!
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Gulf of Alaska ridge =
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
View attachment 54166
that blocking is saving our bacon with regards to a southeast ridge right there, but that GOA ridge is a highlight unfortunately of our pattern the last several years so it scares me
ajr
Member
Although this run was better than the last two over the NW.Gulf of Alaska ridge =
Hopefully this is the usual long range EPS nonsense where it doesn't properly handle individual wave breaks in the NP jet, seen it so many times bust in forecasting -EPO, keeping the ridge too far south in the extended ensemble means
View attachment 54166
BufordWX
Member
Nam still looking solid for flurries and snow showers for Tennessee and parts of north Alabama and Georgia from Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
ajr
Member
Since there have been recent posts with people asking about some of the basics, here's a (brief) explanation for why people are excited about the third wave from the 12z ECMWF. This upper air pattern supports a coastal low forming (roughly) around the area circled in the red, and the steering currents would take it close to the coast. 
Furthermore, air will be plenty cold to support snow (the 850mb level is about 5000ft up -- my understanding is this is more accurate to model than surface temps at this range). Generally, 850 temps <0C can support snow, but as we get closer to the event, we would need to look at more detailed temperature profiles for warm pockets of air, which are unfortunately common in our area.
Furthermore, air will be plenty cold to support snow (the 850mb level is about 5000ft up -- my understanding is this is more accurate to model than surface temps at this range). Generally, 850 temps <0C can support snow, but as we get closer to the event, we would need to look at more detailed temperature profiles for warm pockets of air, which are unfortunately common in our area.
ICON for the second wave
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Damn it 
Meanwhile
I am officially booked for gatlinburg. My wife and I will be staying at the same place we stayed in February of 2018 and we got 2 inches. I’m hoping for 3+ this go around. 18z GFS and ICON continued to look good. I will keep you guys posted and am looking forward to it!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Enjoy it! You should be good for at least 2-4 with some gusty winds too.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Good luck !
Gfs is gonna phase earlier with that energy coming out of SE Canada
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Tablesetter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Placement of the waves overall is nice, maybe if this one over the Great Lakes dug a bit further SW instead of bottling most of the cold into Ontario & Quebec.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Gfs is actually kind of warm.
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Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Atlanta's urban heat island is much more pronounced than virtually any other in the SE US
BufordWX
Member
GEFS still has some good looks for snow showers into northern Alabama and Georgia Monday evening. 
Keep pinwheeling that SE Canada vortex, we’ll end up timing a wave right, this is better than a SE Canada ridge 
-NAO this run.
Revised, tee hee: 
That’s a pretty impressive signal for cold that far out, quite a favorable pattern for the mountains here 
BufordWX
Member
I will sign up for the RGEM
NoSnowATL
Member
Flurry storm
BufordWX
Member
I do think areas as far south as Atlanta have a reasonable shot at flurries. A snowflake is a snowflake after all. We will take what we can.
NoSnowATL
Member
Stephenb888
Member
I don’t understand why the precip cuts off at the NC/SC line in every model.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
A snowflake before Christmas is always a victory !
BufordWX
Member
Mountains cut off the precipitation in the NW flow.
And the Cumberland Plateau will rob CHA of any stray snow showers... I've seen this movie before (a million times..)..
I say we level those mountains and install a new Great Lake
Just dig out Kentucky and fill it with water and bass.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Yeah doesn't make sense why God would put the Great Lakes so far north in areas that already get snow. The south needs the Great Lakes more than they do !