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Pattern Nippy November

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Normally I’m not all that high on the GEFS in the extended range at 500mb but it did pretty damn good in the with this last bout of cold. It seems to be holding a general look from outside of 300 to sell inside 200 which is encouraging. Will it keep being that good? Doubtful, but maybe View attachment 25902
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That's the 18z
 
Why love a model not showing a warm up, that has a known cold bias?
 
Too bad we are losing the really cold air, that Friday/Saturday storm is looking very juiced now @ 6z!! Especially over Carolinas! Just first of many cold rains to come!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Too bad we are losing the really cold air, that Friday/Saturday storm is looking very juiced now @ 6z!! Especially over Carolinas! Just first of many cold rains to come!
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Yeap just like last year.


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BHS1975 said:
Yeap just like last year.


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Really? We had close calls with coastal's in November last year? Good grief guys it's only mid November for Pete's sake, I mean if it were mid Jan and we were missing like this sure but mid November??
 
metwannabe said:
Really? We had close calls with coastal's in November last year? Good grief guys it's only mid November for Pete's sake, I mean if it were mid Jan and we were missing like this sure but mid November??
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This. We aren’t even in the good season yet and people are bitching


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KyloG said:
The day 10 evolution on the GEFS has really trending nicely. With the pacific modeled pattern still not a cold pattern but a block and low heights off the east coast is always a welcome site.

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I gotta say something does seem different as we get closer to winter this year, the "torch" keeps getting beat back, models trending nicer, maybe just maybe this really is the SE's year.
 
metwannabe said:
I gotta say something does seem different as we get closer to winter this year, the "torch" keeps getting beat back, models trending nicer, maybe just maybe this really is the SE's year.
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I really want to believe this is the case. But after getting burnt last year with that "Big Cool down" that started showing up on the models last year in December, and watching it keep getting pushed back, its hard to believe.

But then again, i am a weenie, so maybe this year can be the inverse of last year?
 
smast16 said:
I really want to believe this is the case. But after getting burnt last year with that "Big Cool down" that started showing up on the models last year in December, and watching it keep getting pushed back, its hard to believe.

But then again, i am a weenie, so maybe this year can be the inverse of last year?
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Remember last months models and our humbled national Mets all predicted a warm winter. For the se to east coast. However, watching the models and storm tracks as well as the temps the past three weeks all seem to be pointing in the other direction away from +3 AN season around here.

I do not like seasonal forecast as I can tell it’s only for people that don’t understand patterns and climate. The best we can do is 340hrs out. We know the ENSO neutral state has done well in our area in the past and a warmer Indian Ocean helps a modoki all this can change unexpectedly. Pattern can change, but we have the past several weeks do go on and 340hrs ahead and all look good for this winter. Keep it up Mother Nature. I love busy winters.


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