• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

KyloG said:
Definitely makes you wonder if this was mid-January would this be a legit wintery threat.

View attachment 25916
Click to expand...

Look at the placement of the low and high. Almost ideal for a winter storm here. A 1038 high up there is pretty awesome.

SoutheastRidge said:
Ordinarily i would say its a few weeks too early but we are getting temps now that would be cold even by January standards.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree, actually. Just because it's November doesn't necessarily mean it can't snow, especially if you have this kind of air mass in place. So, in the end, I'm kind of disagreeing with myself lol. I think the difference may be, though, is that it's probably easier to keep a cold air mass in place longer and keep it colder longer in January than in November.
 
Rain Cold said:
Look at the placement of the low and high. Almost ideal for a winter storm here. A 1038 high up there is pretty awesome.


I tend to agree, actually. Just because it's November doesn't necessarily mean it can't snow, especially if you have this kind of air mass in place. So, in the end, I'm kind of disagreeing with myself lol. I think the difference may be, though, is that it's probably easier to keep a cold air mass in place longer and keep it colder longer in January than in November.
Click to expand...
Especially since there isn't a huge snow pack to the north and the cold just hasn't become firmly entrenched up north yet either. Transient shots like this one sure but certainly can't expect this to last more than a day or two this early in the season. There's virtually no snow cover along the east coast all the way up into Canada (except for that small patch around Richmond Lol). I say give it a month, build that snow pack and allow time for the ocean waters off the NE coast to cool some more, give us this same setup then and boom

1573664807290.png
 
Last edited:
The end of the GFS, finishing up November, on a warm is note7A55C642-D671-4C42-8C59-93BFE9AC509C.png
 
GaWx said:
Why is it so quiet in here when the most revered index, the -NAO, is showing up quite strongly on the EPS and especially on the GEFS from 11/22 through the ends of the runs?
Click to expand...
Probably because most posters either only look at OP models or don't have access to long range EPS stuff. Just my guess.
 
GaWx said:
Well, it is more intense on the GEFS as Kylo showed and which is at TT as I assume you know.
Click to expand...
Yep, I do. I am not sure how many folks roll through the ensemble plots though. The proliferation of posts containing operational images makes me think that it's not very many.

Also, as we've seen so many times in bygone years, ensembles frequently tend to show good patterns that either don't come to fruition or end up not producing anything. I think the recent string of overall crappy winters in the face of semi-frequent longer term good pattern predictions may be finally starting to take it's toll, tamping down excitement.
 
Is there a chance of sleet on Thanksgiving? I heard that 2 weeks from now, it is snowing.
 
Now after looking at the models, it seems that GFS is saying warm weather on Black Friday, whilst other models say its going to snow?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top