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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Obviously, the dynamics are different but it never ceases to amaze me how strong the local gradients in snowfall are in association w/ lake effect snow bands.
I recall that there was a SSW last winter season and nothing really happened in the southeast. Nobody knows how this winter is really going to shape up. One of the best indicators of how it's going to shape up is of course taking a look at the ENSO. For now, it's most likely going to be a neutral ENSO and typically southeast does well with a neutral ENSO.
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Fountainguy97
Member
Yep more interaction with the southern stream. Beefs up the front and gives more moisture.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Still not exactly what we're looking for, but it's another step in the right direction on the 12z GFS.
If we can get the s/w over Mexico to emerge quick enough in the wake of the big trough over the Lakes, we could have something on our hands after the arctic front passes. Again, this is an entirely different threat of wintry wx than what we've been discussing the last several days.
If we can get the s/w over Mexico to emerge quick enough in the wake of the big trough over the Lakes, we could have something on our hands after the arctic front passes. Again, this is an entirely different threat of wintry wx than what we've been discussing the last several days.
Looking at 12z GFS, the moisture is just gone too soon.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
Yes but new years more often than not yield the same results. Climatology always wins.
weatherfide
Member
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Looks like the cold is gone for me. No more twenties and maybe not even freezing for next week. Trend on all models is to keep ATL and south warmer than to the west and east.
If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
I would like to stress to everyone, this is an extreme member... not a mean.. it's member 32.
Hopefully, we'll keep an active pattern. We need the rain. Maybe we'll get a well-timed high and get some frozen stuff at some point this winter.
In all honesty, this is gravy boat stuff right now anyway. It would be highly unusual (but highly awesome) for one of the extreme ensemble members to verify for once. But probably the best exercise to be undertaken right now is to evaluate key atmospheric features as we begin heading into the winter season and see if we see anything that gives us a reason to be optimistic about how things may turn out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS has been progressively speeding up the next wave on Thu/Fri as the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner on successive runs, if this trend continued for a little while longer we could be looking at a completely different, more wintry solution next week.
accu35
Member
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So eps has one storm and gfs has two? Could this be one of those setups to where gfs doesn't suppress as far south in the gulf and merging into one storm?If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah here you can see the GFS lowering pressure at the tail end of the front as more southern energy is interacting.
So close but yet so far. If the EPS at 12z has more members showing the tail end surface low then maybe we have something going on.
Still a low % chance right now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's pretty close in parts of the west-central piedmont, we need this surface low to come about a day and some change sooner to maximize our chances for snow/ice. Still within the margin of error at this point.
That would be a way to go. Enjoying the heavy snow, hear the wind pick up and get nailed in the head by a two by four.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The number of 0z EPS members showing snow in Charlotte w/ this coastal low after the arctic front is roughly the same as those depicting snow/ice during the front's passage.
I wouldn't even consider this a minority solution at this point even though we've yet to see it on the operational models.
Right or wrong, I’m hugging this baby! Models underestimating the wedge! Somebody post the CMC!
