Not much difference, but the high in NY is in better position, hanging on a little longer, than was showing at 6z
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
If the ridge out west over British Columbia can be delayed or stall at best then that will allow the Ridge over the Great Lakes to remain longer and possibility it could regenerate further south. A lot of ifs right now. Definitely bares watching. We can notice the Euro later how it handles this Ridge.
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What a mess. At 102, you can see a very nice, well-placed high pressure migrating through the Plains, eastward toward the E-NE. There is a low pressure developing in Mexico. Where the low actually NEEDS to be is somewhere near the green X in the NE Gulf.
Skipping ahead to 120, we see the high, still strong enough, has moved ENE. The actual area of low pressure is forming in the SW Gulf. What NEEDS to happen is the high needs to be farther NW and the low needs to be emerging off the SE coast, somewhere near the green X. As is, the high's strength and position would be too suppressive. Unfortunately, there's nothing there to suppress, as it is still way down in the Gulf.
Jumping out to 162, we see the main high has moved well offshore, leaving behind a stale air mass. A new high, much weaker, is building in, and of course, it's not of sufficient strength for the time of year. The mountains help to delay the arrival of the next (and weaker) shot of cold air. Now, the storm is located in an optimal spot. For rain.
And finally, at 192, the high in the Plains has strengthened, but has moved too far NE to do any good. It doesn't matter anyway, as the storm is long gone.
You can see in the above images the suppressive nature of a strong high. They help to illustrate just how narrow the usual window is for us to get snow. A super-strong high, that has built in is usually going to suppress the storm too far south. While a weaker high, located too far north is going to allow a window for a storm, but the cold will be marginal or not nearly cold enough. The mountains help make it difficult. All of this gets magnified in November. We already all kind of know all this, but the images show it pretty well.
High pressure NEEDS to build in just ahead of the storm, which NEEDS to take an optimal track from the NE Gulf to off the SE coast. Rarely does this happen anymore. Highs blast in and blast out. And lows sit in the SW and follow the cold air's movement out. I think a lot of this has to do with the substantial lack of blocking and slowing down of the flow. We can't get an arctic front to stall south of the area anymore, which is what we need. Blocking would be very helpful at holding the window open wider for longer. So, we'll keep waiting.....
By the way, what happened to our super historic cold outbreak. Anybody seen it?
Skipping ahead to 120, we see the high, still strong enough, has moved ENE. The actual area of low pressure is forming in the SW Gulf. What NEEDS to happen is the high needs to be farther NW and the low needs to be emerging off the SE coast, somewhere near the green X. As is, the high's strength and position would be too suppressive. Unfortunately, there's nothing there to suppress, as it is still way down in the Gulf.
Jumping out to 162, we see the main high has moved well offshore, leaving behind a stale air mass. A new high, much weaker, is building in, and of course, it's not of sufficient strength for the time of year. The mountains help to delay the arrival of the next (and weaker) shot of cold air. Now, the storm is located in an optimal spot. For rain.
And finally, at 192, the high in the Plains has strengthened, but has moved too far NE to do any good. It doesn't matter anyway, as the storm is long gone.
You can see in the above images the suppressive nature of a strong high. They help to illustrate just how narrow the usual window is for us to get snow. A super-strong high, that has built in is usually going to suppress the storm too far south. While a weaker high, located too far north is going to allow a window for a storm, but the cold will be marginal or not nearly cold enough. The mountains help make it difficult. All of this gets magnified in November. We already all kind of know all this, but the images show it pretty well.
High pressure NEEDS to build in just ahead of the storm, which NEEDS to take an optimal track from the NE Gulf to off the SE coast. Rarely does this happen anymore. Highs blast in and blast out. And lows sit in the SW and follow the cold air's movement out. I think a lot of this has to do with the substantial lack of blocking and slowing down of the flow. We can't get an arctic front to stall south of the area anymore, which is what we need. Blocking would be very helpful at holding the window open wider for longer. So, we'll keep waiting.....
By the way, what happened to our super historic cold outbreak. Anybody seen it?
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Waiting on the 3K NAM to get into extended range before I go full goob. I’m afraid we’re relying heavily on theoretical snow cover and that never turns out quite like we hope. But what do I know. I’m just a middle aged miser
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't have vort maps yet, but the 12z GEFS is definitely headed in the right direction w/ our southern stream wave in the SW US.
Moving the wave further N embeds it deeper within the westerlies >>> faster progression.
(oops wrong thread)
Moving the wave further N embeds it deeper within the westerlies >>> faster progression.
(oops wrong thread)
Moved it over here for you!
accu35
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For the first system or second?
First one maybe?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
There only is 1 storm on the CMC and that's the first one. Second one fails to develop until it's practically off the coast, but there's a trend toward the GFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CMC looks way out in left field w/ the southern stream s/w compared to other guidance, digging it south of the Baja peninsula, whereas the GEFS & EPS are a few hundred miles further north, closer to the US/Mexico border.
And playing the role of someone who is not able to join us today is metwannabe: "Negative comments belong in the whamby thread, why follow it if you already know what's going to happen?"
Uh Oh, look what the 12z Euro is doing!
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Quite the improvement with the 2nd system on the Euro.... dang
If the high would just slow down a tad and precip (energy) speed up just a tad could at least see some frozen stuff in the favored areas... nice dry arctic air mass in place heck who knows might see an ip or two yet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.
Euro had the low tracking in the gulf then right through the heart of the Carolinas..doubt it but nice to see it flirting with a wintry solution. Still lots of time I guess
I see some energy up over Wy/Mt that wasn't there before, implications? What do you make of that if anything?
edit: is it this second piece of energy that keeps this going for Tn, that's a decent deform band for them