Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

[bouncycorn]

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 129080

Dang dangerous look there.

 

[SD]

18z nam and gfs are both a 2 wave event the Tuesday portion has much more backing in the low levels but lacks a little on the instability side and may have an inversion across parts of Al/GA. Wednesday looks much better with sb instability but the wind field gets a little more unidirectional but still slightly backed at the sfc

 

[SD]

Locally I think this could be a formidable wind event but I'm not entirely sold on that. We could easily just see a slow moving training line

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

This guy does a fantastic job breaking down what the models are showing. Really gets down into the finer details. Even gets into the discussion of the soundings. You can really learn a lot. He also looks at past events and breaks them down in the same detail.

 

[JHS]

Locally I think this could be a formidable wind event but I'm not entirely sold on that. We could easily just see a slow moving training line

Timing looks right for much of NC and SC right now to have at least a wind threat with this. No real sign of CAD with this either, but that could obviously change.

 

[SD]

12z hrrr had some discrete convection a decent SB Cape values in the warm sector Tuesday afternoon

 

[SD]

Line tries to roll linear by Tue morning but this still looks problematic

 

[SD]

 

[DadOfJax]

Zander had a valid point. Yes he may be extreme with some of his outlooks and terminology, but the point he was making is that if whatever is being discussed doesn’t involve the Carolina’s it gets crapped on by a lot of people and discredited. Move this to banter if you feel it is necessary but this is SOUTHERNwx not just CAROLINAwx.

He’s back…

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Line tries to roll linear by Tue morning but this still looks problematic

View attachment 129104

Yeah that looks like trouble looks like there is still plenty of development ahead of the main squall line and the squall line itself looks stout!

 

[shortstopsergio]

Shame that Zander guy left.. he was the only one making a lot of posts about this event. Would love some more analysis

 

[BHAMWX]

Zander kept me up to date with potential bad weather in my area. Get him back, please.

 

[Natedogg25]

Zander kept me up to date with potential bad weather in my area. Get him back, please.

I agree.. always keeping us Alabama folks with the latest information.

 

[Triplephase93]

Shameful he was dismissed by admin. He was one of the few who posted on threats outside of the Carolinas.

 

[SD]

Oof

 

[Heelyes]

Shameful he was dismissed by admin. He was one of the few who posted on threats outside of the Carolinas.

Come on dude, he quit like a little kid because he didn't like ?

 

[NoSnowATL]

Oof View attachment 129125

PDS sounding for sure.

 

[Triplephase93]

Come on dude, he quit like a little kid because he didn't like ?

Check out the reactions in this thread. I love this site. I visit everyday. Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia have much different weather than than the Carolinas on any given system. He wasn’t wrong on this system for his area.

 

[SD]

It's really a messy situation once you get east of MS. That initial round late tomorrow intoTuesday looks legit in the area outlined by spc but after that it really throws a monkey wrench downstream into al/GA.