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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)


YAY FOR ME!!!!! NOT
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
555 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

Tuesday.

By Tuesday morning, flow aloft will become more enhanced as longwave
troughing pushes east. This will also help position the sub-tropical
jet toward the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians.
As such, increasing kinematic parameters are forecast to coincide
with a more unstable warm sector moving into Alabama as dewpoints
rise into the low to upper 60s. With aid of afternoon heating, 500-
1,500 J/kg MLCAPE is progged with 40-55 kts eff. bulk shear. This
environment will support supercells, especially as a few more robust
updrafts will be possible with the progged 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse
rates. HREF guidance suggests a zone of enhanced tornado potential
could manifest in our southwest and south-central counties where 200-
250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is possible with better low-level CAPE. All
advertised severe threats remain on the table with the strongest
storms, despite narrowing hodograph curvature by the evening. All
things considered, the magnitude of this severe event will depend
on how capable thunderstorms become considering weak forcing
aloft, as well as potential warm sector contamination or cold-
pooling. In fact, latest available CAM guidance suggests loosely
aggregated thunderstorm clusters, mainly as height falls begin to
occur ahead of the lagging synoptic cold front.

Severe threats are forecast to decrease into Tuesday night, though
this always becomes a tricky time period. A few swaths of heavier
rainfall also remain possible which could lead to localized
flooding. Additionally, we`ll have to watch for re-development of
showers and a few thunderstorms along the now accelerating cold
front into Wednesday morning as new forcing aloft moves through the
Tennessee Valley
 
For the risk area today the Hrrr spams storms across Arkansas with the first wave. Gonna be tough to get significant severe out of this look, but certainly wouldn’t rule out a few brief tornados. Second wave of storms after dark will be in an environment more kinematically conducive to severe weather, but even then will depend on what these storms do to the atmosphere and models will likely struggle to resolve that.CB0C1803-EF58-405B-9B96-FD4E03D84BFE.png
 
Talk about bad timing. KGSP radar is down. Leaves a big coverage hole. Here is the official notification.

Due to an equipment failure, the KGSP radar will be down through at least tonight. Technicians are troubleshooting the issue, but it is currently unknown when the radar will return to service. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Here is a link to a page showing the at risk area and alternatives at least for the Charlotte area.

Alternate Radars for a KGSP Outage

www.weather.gov


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
18z hrrr seems to show a multiple wave event. This thing isnt going to be in a hurry to move through thats for sure. I feel sorry for the folks having to make a forecast for todays risk areas. Highly conditional threat. Very messy convective pattern may keep a damper on things.
 
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