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Naughty November

GaWx said:
Best way to tell is to look at the direct evidence for exactly what were the coldest readings of each winter and then break these lows down by ENSO. Sounds like it is right up my ally to do this and it is straightforward, but I need some time to do this and put it together.
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So I actually did a little research into this, and based on reliable long-term temperature data from 16 stations in the SE US whose temperature records are continuous, reliable, and extend at least before 1890, I found that La Nina winters were associated on average with slightly more minimum temperature extremes (both warm and cold), with near-marginally significant differences between El Nino and La Nina winters (p-value of 0.06). Interestingly, it seems like this relationship was stronger and more apparent in the Carolinas & Virginia than elsewhere in the SE US.

To determine if a particular winter's temperature minimum was "extreme", it had to meet/exceed +/- 1 standard deviation from the mean of all winter minimum temperatures at that location.

Again, there's considerable variation amongst individual stations, but on the whole, La Ninas appear to have slightly more extreme variation in minimum winter temperatures than El Ninos, which goes along with the idea that on a large-scale, La Ninas are capable of getting both cooler and warmer because the establishment of the Aleutian ridge/-PNA seeds western & northern N America with extremely cold air while the SE US ridge keeps us mild (on average), but when that pattern does break down, the air masses tend to be more severe. Whereas in El Ninos, the strong/extensive Pacific & subtropical jet flood N America w/ mild air and the typical meridional temperature gradient is weaker as result (thus, tendency for less extreme temperature variations).

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Nothing on radar but steady light rain. New Flash Flood Emergency out for Lookout Shoals.
 
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LOOKOUT SHOALS...
* At 1155 AM EST, Devastating, widespread structural flooding is
expected within the Carpenters Cove area and along Longfield St
near Shadeview Lane. Significant first-floor inundation is
ongoing and water rescues may be ongoing.
 
This pattern is teetering on the edge between a pure dumpster fire and a blockbuster. The west-based -NAO and Alaska/NW territory ridges are bridging over the top, but the trough off the west coast is trying to pump the heights over the east-central US. Warmth is more likely going to win out but we could hit it big pattern-wise if a couple dominoes magically fall in our corner.

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Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is teetering on the edge between a pure dumpster fire and a blockbuster. The west-based -NAO and Alaska/NW territory ridges are bridging over the top, but the trough off the west coast is trying to pump the heights over the east-central US. Warmth is more likely going to win out but we could hit it big pattern-wise if a couple dominoes magically fall in our corner.

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I'm always up for cold. Does kinda suck that we may use our best shot at wintry wx in mid-late Nov
 
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Remember, turn around dont drown
 
metwannabe said:
Good thing the rain shield is on the move east now because it is pouring buckets! @Rain Cold you top 7" yet?
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Literally just coming in here to type it. 7.08" right now. I had to retake 6 again, so I lost a little ground. Apparently, the Tempest decided to remove .4 from last night's total. So that removal of rainfall is currently being disputed. :)

Should get close to 7.5" unless it decides to steal rainfall from me again. #stopthesteal
 
Rain Cold said:
Literally just coming in here to type it. 7.08" right now. I had to retake 6 again, so I lost a little ground. Apparently, the Tempest decided to remove .4 from last night's total. So that removal of rainfall is currently being disputed. :)

Should get close to 7.5" unless it decides to steal rainfall from me again. #stopthesteal
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We will give you a week to 10 days to tally up the results ;)
 
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