Pattern Muddy March 2021

[Webberweather53]

How you guys still have hope for this weekend is beyond me but impressive. I love the fight. But it’s over. Enjoy the dry and sunny days, we’ve had enough suffering.

Had

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Get em outa here coach, bye bye shredder ---- trough

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I mean how can you hate on this ? who needs 40s and 50s when you can get this

 

[Webberweather53]

I mean how can you hate on this ? who needs 40s and 50s when you can get this View attachment 77650

We’re almost to that time of the year where even below average temps are beautiful.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’re almost to that time of the year where even below average temps are beautiful.

Even HM is agreeing at how much we’ve sucked And gotten unlucky ??

 

[LickWx]

We’re almost to that time of the year where even below average temps are beautiful.

Yep! Not quite there yet but almost! By April it would take outside of climo temps to be genuinely cold as the mean lowest max for April is 52, 43 for March.

 

[Webberweather53]

Even HM is agreeing at how much we’ve sucked And gotten unlucky ??

It’s funny how all of a sudden now the models decide to be extremely consistent and lock-in-step beyond day 3 when all we had this winter was NW trend after NW trend in this range.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s funny how all of a sudden now the models decide to be extremely consistent and lock-in-step beyond day 3 when all we had this winter was NW trend after NW trend in this range.

That’s just pure bad luck, can’t even make it up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Awesome

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m ready to chase them wedges

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m ready to chase them wedges View attachment 77657View attachment 77658

Looks like southern plains lower MS valley will be the places to watch (as is often the case at this time of the year)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like southern plains lower MS valley will be the places to watch (as is often the case at this time of the year)

View attachment 77661

Might need to look for hotels down there

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s do this ---- again, more west dumpage ?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Might need to look for hotels down there

Only if I could join you Jay ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Only if I could join you Jay ?

Maybe this may man when I stay with @MattLabenzwx ,I’m flying there lol for chasecation he’s gonna drive haha

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s some eye candy

 

[SD]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 77667

If that was 1-2 months ago we’d be Getting onset ice, now it’s upper 30s and 40s, winter is slowly leaving

 

[SD]

If that was 1-2 months ago we’d be Getting onset ice, now it’s upper 30s and 40s, winter is slowly leaving

Yep. Hopefully we can avoid the wudges as much as possible bc the upcoming 2 weeks will try to lock them in

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep. Hopefully we can avoid the wudges as much as possible bc the upcoming 2 weeks is going to try to lock them in

Wudges start creating wedges along there boundaries this time of the year to, if we indeed do get severe, then a CAD boundary would be bad news

 

[Webberweather53]

Year-to-date precip ranks across the Carolinas, VA, & GA.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Webberweather53]

Gonna have to watch how far south that trough near Labrador gets around mid-month. Don't want it to screw up our warm-up and give us CAD, of course it could also make our severe worse depending on this wave in the four corners.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gonna have to watch how far south that trough near Labrador gets around mid-month. Don't want it to screw up our warm-up and give us CAD, of course it could also make our severe worse depending on this wave in the four corners.

View attachment 77675

Looks like last April lol, other then a trough digging in/diving from GOA

 

[Webberweather53]

I guess we should enjoy the anomalous warmth while it lasts, we have a legit MJO wave pushing towards the Indian Ocean (phase 2-3) late in the month & into early April that'll try to put a damper on a quick start to summer.

I hope this doesn't translate to more cold rains

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Here’s some eye candy View attachment 77665View attachment 77664View attachment 77666View attachment 77663

You’re more of a weenie for warmth than the weenies for cold in here ... unfortunate the warmup won’t last long for you

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Let’s do this ---- again, more west dumpage ?View attachment 77662

This got CAD written all over it ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Damn SER getting it’s ass whooped long range Gfs and CMC ... hey the warm up will be another nice couple days .. good enough for some pickle ball ? then we’re back to flizzard tracking

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn SER getting it’s ass whooped long range Gfs and CMC ... hey the warm up will be another nice couple days .. good enough for some pickle ball ? then we’re back to flizzard tracking

Ain’t no flizzard happening lol, you can get a blizzard at DQ tho

 

[Webberweather53]

Boy, I hope this is wrong

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Ain’t no flizzard happening lol, you can get a blizzard at DQ tho

??? see u late March

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Boy, I hope this is wrong

View attachment 77682

View attachment 77683

Could you explain the implications here?

 

[Webberweather53]

Boy, I hope this is wrong

View attachment 77682

View attachment 77683

For once, there's pretty good agreement between the CFS & EPS w/ this MJO wave that's now over the central Pacific & that it'll enter the Indian Ocean in late March and try to spoil our nice warm-ups

 

[Webberweather53]

Could you explain the implications here?

Indian Ocean MJO in March-April favors below average temperatures here, and both the EPS & CFS are forecasting a strong MJO to reach the Indian Ocean near the end of March, it's something we'll have to watch in the coming week or two to see what effect it'll have on our pattern following the warm-up near mid month.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Indian Ocean MJO in March-April favors below average temperatures here, and both the EPS & CFS are forecasting a strong MJO to reach the Indian Ocean near the end of March, it's something we'll have to watch in the coming week or two to see what effect it'll have on our pattern following the warm-up near mid month.

Didn’t we have that same forcing last April-May which also lead to active severe weather with quick warm sector setups ? I remember Easter Sunday would have been a winter storm if it was 4 months earlier with that SE Canada vortex

 

[Webberweather53]

Didn’t we have that same forcing last April-May which also lead to active severe weather with quick warm sector setups ? I remember Easter Sunday would have been a winter storm if it was 4 months earlier with that SE Canada vortex

Yep, we did but by the time you get into May, especially mid-late month the response is totally different (-PNA) because the SW monsoon over southern Eurasia is fixing to come on and the wavelengths are a lot shorter.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep, we did but by the time you get into May, especially mid-late month the response is totally different (-PNA) because the SW monsoon over southern Eurasia is fixing to come on and the wavelengths are a lot shorter.

May 2019 is a good example if I’m not mistaken of that

 

[olhausen]

30 this morning.

Nashville heat island? Got down to 26.2 this morning.

 

[jackendrickwx]

My station has been down today, but a nearby one is showing 60F