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Pattern Muddy March 2021

0Z Euro:
1) nothingburger for storm 3/6-7
2) The cold themes continue for 3/5-9 and @dsaur still gets his 3/7-8 freezes though the Euro nay be overdone due to cold bias. The moles will either be digging for warmth or begging Tony to let them inside:

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GaWx said:
0Z Euro:
1) nothingburger for storm 3/6-7
2) The cold themes continue for 3/5-9 and @dsaur still gets his 3/7-8 freezes though the Euro nay be overdone due to cold bias. The moles will either be digging for warmth or begging Tony to let them inside:

View attachment 77624
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I don't think you can always assume a model is overdone w/ "x" in every case because every setup is different. If the current trends continue, these cold Euro runs won't be out to lunch because the pattern will have continued to trend favorably for more cold.
 
Update: i had not looked south as of that post. There's plenty of clouds to the south but they don't cover the sun. GSP says 64F, 3k only gets me to 59F.
 
Downeastnc said:
Crazy to see Rocky Mount only get to 38 when 30 miles up the road at Halifax they got to 27....easy to see where the cloud deck ended.....
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That and if you're going by RWI it's probably a degree or 2 warmer than surrounding rural areas, plus I'm in a protected rural location that always runs a degree or 2 colder.
 
metwannabe said:
That and if you're going by RWI it's probably a degree or 2 warmer than surrounding rural areas, plus I'm in a protected rural location that always runs a degree or 2 colder.
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RWI airport is outside the city in the countryside on 97 . It’s nothing but fields out that way! I like going out there , there’s the Tar river reservoir near it and a cool dam and fishing spots
 
SD said:
Eps mean drops highs back into the 50s around mid month. Looks like we are going to get into the warm weekday cold weekend cycle ?
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Yeah that mean has yet to work out for us yet ! Remember the cold bias ! Remember the stretch of nothing but 30s for highs it had us for ? The cold weekend cycle is killing me though that much has been happening at least.
 
Lickwx said:
Yeah that mean has yet to work out for us yet ! Remember the cold bias ! Remember the stretch of nothing but 30s for highs it had us for ? The cold weekend cycle is killing me though that much has been happening at least.
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Id certainly take the eps mean over the other available guidance
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sigh. If this upper low had any meat left on it this woulda worked.


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It's actually insane how close we've come back to that weenie CMC run from several days ago w/ our northern stream s/w diving into IL/WI, with only very minor differences at 500mb.

We put all the pieces in about the right place, a little stronger upper low and less amped northern stream encourages better phasing/interactions, and that's the difference between cold & dry vs snowstorm in eastern NC.

1614785452419.png


1614785439574.png



So instead of this
1614785511363.png



We get this...

1614785526724.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's actually insane how close we've come back to that weenie CMC run from several days ago w/ our northern stream s/w diving into IL/WI, with only very minor differences at 500mb.

We put all the pieces in about the right place, a little stronger upper low and less amped northern stream encourages better phasing/interactions, and that's the difference between cold & dry vs snowstorm in eastern NC.

View attachment 77642


View attachment 77641



So instead of this
View attachment 77643



We get this...

View attachment 77644
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This has been the story of what this winter has been for us. Any other time, the NW trend would've occurred. On the bright side, atleast we are mostly likely done with cold rain events for the year.
 
Faco Thomas said:
This has been the story of what this winter has been for us. Any other time, the NW trend would've occurred. On the bright side, atleast we are mostly likely done with cold rain events for the year.
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The fact that we actually did put the pieces back in the right place to give ourselves a chance only to still somehow screw it up because the amplitude was a tad off is an even bigger kick to the nads.

Thank goodness winter is basically over.
 
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