Pattern Muddy March 2021

[GaWx]

This is what most of the 18z models were heading to and my exact worry ? that would be complete bullsh-t if we struggled to get a legit wave, as that’s normally not our worry View attachment 77223

No need to "worry" if you assume it will be nothing. And it is only wx, regardless. This message is to all "worriers" about this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This -NAO came out of nowhere and is around -2 sigma, pretty solid

 

[lexxnchloe]

Im not worried because i know this will be big.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I mean we went from this to this, pretty big change out of nowhere only in a matter of around a week, if I was a betting man I’d expect this to get pushed back even more

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Im not worried because i know this will be big.

This is based off of what

 

[GaWx]

This -NAO came out of nowhere and is around -2 sigma, pretty solid View attachment 77225

These WxBell Euro indices are almost always overdone for daily NAO/AO. They're often double or more reality, whether + or 1. For example, look at the current NAO on this WxBell chart: ~+1.5. In reality today was only +0.64 per this:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

I trust this way more:



If it goes negative, it won't be anywhere near -2. Mark my words. I'll verify this then and see if I am right.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

These WxBell Euro indices are almost always overdone for daily NAO/AO. They're often double or more reality, whether + or 1. For example, look at the current NAO on this WxBell chart: ~+1.5. In reality today was only +0.64 per this:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

I trust this way more:

View attachment 77229

If it goes negative, it won't be anywhere near -2. Mark my words. I'll verify this then and see if I am right.

Might have different criteria’s however over a different area, the overall look on a H5 map is a impressive Greenland ridge, I wonder why there so different

 

[GaWx]

Might have different criteria’s however over a different area, the overall look on a H5 map is a impressive Greenland ridge

Yeah, Greenland ridge doesn't always mean -NAO. Maybe we need a strictly Greenland ridge index as that may be more useful.

 

[SD]

Might have different criteria’s however over a different area, the overall look on a H5 map is a impressive Greenland ridge, I wonder why there so different

I've seen this discussed on the boards before. I believe they are calculated differently but I'm not sure what the differences are

 

[Myfrotho704_]

How many Baffin Bay mega ridges have we seen this winter

 

[GaWx]

Might have different criteria’s however over a different area, the overall look on a H5 map is a impressive Greenland ridge, I wonder why there so different

I don't know, but I trust the NWS way more than WxBell or any company that employs the super weenie Bastardi.

 

[GaWx]

0Z Icon says this will be a nothingburger:

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

0Z Icon says this will be a nothingburger:

View attachment 77243

I truly think all models will probably show that on the 0z suite

 

[Ollie Williams]

While the GFS is less amped, it’s also much colder.

 

[Chandler]

Maybe some flurries with this look

 

[GaWx]

GFS starts off colder and drier due to drier h5 flow, but lets see if a coastal pops up late

 

[Myfrotho704_]

While the GFS is less amped, it’s also much colder.
View attachment 77255
View attachment 77256

I’m not a fan of the less amped trend at all

 

[GaWx]

GFS starts off colder and drier due to drier h5 flow, but lets see if a coastal pops up late

Yep, late well offshore low now may be popping.

 

[GaWx]

So, for the SE, 0Z ICON and GFS say nothingburger due to too dry.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I’m not a fan of the less amped trend at all

It's so sad too because cold air might be becoming less of a problem, but with a weak, less amped cutoff, it just gets shredded to oblivion...never really had a chance with a overpowering northern stream.