Pattern Muddy March 2021

[JakkelWx]

Little write up from me, it’s interesting because I’m willing to bet if it was just a ridge out around the Aleutians, given shorter wavelengths we’d try to sneak a trough to our NE

Then bobbitt the cold weenie shows up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sat is gonna be close af

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[LickWx]

Sat is gonna be close af View attachment 78260View attachment 78261

I dont think the GFS has considered just how much of the snowpack we have lost to the north of us, it does terrible with predicting where there is snow on the ground still. Not too mention it is not aware of how much soil moisture we have lost. Therefore it is incorrect.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Geez lol

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Geez lol View attachment 78264

Okay now we’re starting to get hot ... we’re not going to be able to control it much longer

 

[Avalanche]

Geez lol View attachment 78264

Im fine with that if there was some tropical moisture and showers associated with it. But we know, there will only be a few fairweather cumulous clouds.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Still though a depiction of a late month cool down is likely IMO eventually the atmosphere will put us in check and I’m hoping when it does .. we can pop out one more flizzard for good times sake

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This pacific pattern is absolute vomit

 

[BHS1975]

No kidding. Hopefully we can change out tropical forcing at some point. The flip is going to be epic

That semipermanent warm blob in the NE pac can't be helping either.


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[Myfrotho704_]

That analog I keep using (last March) isn’t looking that bad

 

[Bham 99]

No kidding. Hopefully we can change out tropical forcing at some point. The flip is going to be epic

Does anyone know if this has happened before for multiple years?

 

[SD]

That semipermanent warm blob in the NE pac can't be helping either.


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Probably not but that leads to are small scale sst anomalies pattern drivers or results or larger scale factors? I'm leaning towards the latter

 

[SD]

Does anyone know if this has happened before for multiple years?

I'm sure someone will pull some stats but id guess the 90s had something similar and sometime in the 20s-50s. I think the 1910s might have sucked too but not sure

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Is this even really a La Niña at this point

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Greensboro doesn’t even average a single daily average of 90 let alone a month though lol. Or 6 months !

Sounds like Columbia SC

 

[SD]

Is this even really a La Niña at this point View attachment 78272

Can we do something about that god forsaken warmth from India to california

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can we do something about that god forsaken warmth from India to california

That’s probably what screwing up the pattern a bit as well past d10

 

[LickWx]

Can we do something about that god forsaken warmth from India to california

It will eventually , we are entering a cycle of global cooling but this stuff takes time which is why I said we won’t feel the cooling till the 2030s in the southeast. This winter was a prime example of what’s coming , though I think we will go through some quite warm winters in the southeast before the flip . For example , the Gulf Stream is the weakest is been in thousands of years apparently this year !

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Didnt Genesis have a song called "no surprise at all" ?

No. That was "No reply at all".