Pattern Muddy March 2021

[SD]

No I wish

That GEFS run really wanted to plant the seeds for a potential -NAO late March-early April

 

[SD]

Well with SPC "pulling the trigger" in the 4-8 Day Outlook, thoughts of starting a Tread for Severe 3/12-3/15. ?

Go for it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sat is gonna be close

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run is gonna have a bigger southeast ridge then lasts nights run

 

[BufordWX]

March living up to its name on the V16.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

A mess but

 

[smast16]

I'm liking the trends for next week too. I'm out that week putting in a french drain. Can't ask for better weather than upper 60's and sunny.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Perfect ridge position to pull high dews out the gulf

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol the 12z euro is so close to locking us up with that sort of pattern, train of energy working down from AK, any shift west with that PNW ridge and we’re stuck with a ridge

 

[CraggyRider]

That GEFS run really wanted to plant the seeds for a potential -NAO late March-early April

Sounds like last year; the high country around here was still getting snow on May 9.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

But but it looked warm from the get go

 

[SD]

But but it looked warm from the get go View attachment 78252

can you zoom this out to NOAM?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

can you zoom this out to NOAM?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Epic kick in the nuts for y’all cold weenies per EPS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@SD im pretty sure this isn’t ideal and rather a nod to the GEFS, am I correct

 

[SD]

@SD im pretty sure this isn’t ideal and rather a nod to the GEFS, am I correct View attachment 78255

More SE ridge most likely

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More SE ridge most likely

We don’t even get - height anomalies anymore, and the SER comes back again after the trough slides Ne

 

[SD]

We don’t even get - height anomalies anymore, and the SER comes back again after the trough slides Ne

Certainly doesn't seem like it 2018 cold shot broke the SE ridge

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Certainly doesn't seem like it 2018 cold shot broke the SE ridge

Honestly just seems like relying on the pacific to deliver cold doesn’t work out 95% of the time, we see how much Atlantic blocking worked but now that its gone (for now although euro/eps isn’t far from it) there isn’t much to suppress the southeast block

 

[Tarheel1]

For cold lovers I don’t think you want to see a coupled TPV north of AK to the stratosphere, a SER imo is much more likely unless we tower that ridge into that TPVView attachment 78234View attachment 78235

I think this can produce!

 

[SD]

Honestly just seems like relying on the pacific to deliver cold doesn’t work out 95% of the time, we see how much Atlantic blocking worked but now that its gone (for now although euro/eps isn’t far from it) there isn’t much to suppress the southeast block

Yeah we are watching how touchy pacific driven cold really is. It can deliver epic cold stuff but it can be epic warm too

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah we are watching how touchy pacific driven cold really is. It can deliver epic cold stuff but it can be epic warm too

We’re watching the last 6 winters lol

 

[SD]

We’re watching the last 6 winters lol

No kidding. Hopefully we can change out tropical forcing at some point. The flip is going to be epic

 

[Myfrotho704_]

As a warm weenie speaking for cold weenies, damn that’s ugly af

 

[Myfrotho704_]

No kidding. Hopefully we can change out tropical forcing at some point. The flip is going to be epic

If I was to bet right now, the plains is gonna be the spot to be, gonna be close for @Brent

 

[SD]

If I was to bet right now, the plains is gonna be the spot to be, gonna be close for @Brent

For snow or severe

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For snow or severe

Around this time of the year, both, Out around our areas I’m honestly more concerned about ridge trending stronger and staying dry

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Delayed but not denied

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Little write up from me, it’s interesting because I’m willing to bet if it was just a ridge out around the Aleutians, given shorter wavelengths we’d try to sneak a trough to our NE

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Little write up from me, it’s interesting because I’m willing to bet if it was just a ridge out around the Aleutians, given shorter wavelengths we’d try to sneak a trough to our NE

CAD will always find a way ? rip tho

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CAD will always find a way ? rip tho

Probably, but nothing bad, pattern is turning into southeast ridge with warm days and CAD sprinkled in

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Probably, but nothing bad, pattern is turning into southeast ridge with warm days and CAD sprinkled in

I know I just want a pants bursting sloppy snow ... I’ll still push for it but .. I live in the same reality as you ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I know I just want a pants bursting sloppy snow ... I’ll still push for it but .. I live in the same reality as you ?

Hopefully next winter will be awesome, I think NC gets its storm next winter, I’m entering a big snow drought here when it comes to 1 inch of snow so lots of due places

 

[jackendrickwx]

GSP going with 71, 72, 75, 79, 76 for highs Tu-Sat

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GSP going with 71, 72, 75, 79, 76 for highs Tu-Sat

Sounds like a nice, classic, normal, happens often, type March warmup !!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Next winter is about to suck so hard, I don’t remember a good second year nina

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Hopefully next winter will be awesome, I think NC gets its storm next winter, I’m entering a big snow drought here when it comes to 1 inch of snow so lots of due places

I mean it’s safe to say now we are genuinely due for something ... La Niña looks to persist through hurricane season and so we need that -NAO again next year

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Brad is a warm weenie ?

 

[Tarheel1]

Next winter is about to suck so hard, I don’t remember a good second year nina

JB will find a way to put a cold twist on it

 

[SD]

Next winter is about to suck so hard, I don’t remember a good second year nina

I'll have to look but I think we have done better in the past 2 decades with second year nina's than before 2000. I could be way off though