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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Shawn said:
Eric, he is including CAE in his forecast imagery though. I can't see 4-6 down here. Your way, sure.
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4"-6" probably is low-balling it w/ nearly every model spitting out at least 0.5-0.6" QPF here in RDU. The mid-level temps will cool very rapidly as this event progresses, so ratios will quickly rise towards 12-15:1 here perhaps even higher further west...
 
Radar filling back in... steady snow falling again. Most surfaces covered. Street is starting to get covered. Temp at 27. Saving grace for the roads is that the intermittent precip and the wind might help keep them from getting to a Jan 2014 level.
 
I just really would be happy with 2 inches this storm. I hope Atlanta can pull it off :) I went on a walk and saw legit blowing snow. This snow is so dry.
 
What kinda rates y'all think for upstate? My guess would be 12:1

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Meteorologist1999 said:
So is this an increase for Columbia, SC? Whats your opinion Shawn from what you see with current models tonight?
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I can't tell you to be honest. Using models right now, is a crapshoot. the UKMET is dead set and has been on 0.25-.0.3+ for the region for a couple days now. How much of that ends up being accumulating snow? I have no idea. I'm a very indecisive person. I hate literals, I hate making a "call". I can say there will likely be flakes flying, and can say there will likely be a dusting to half an inch.

One heavier band setup could ruin my forecast of even an inch, but dropping an extra half inch. I'd say those guys at the NWS are much more honed in, and will update totals as the event unfolds way better than I could. I just try to make the weather website work that we all use right now.

I'm having a slight mental breakdown because I literally can't figure out if Newberry, SC is going to see 3 inches + while CAE proper sees less than an inch. It is nerve wracking, and I am thankful that I never pursued this career outside a hobby.
 
bud006 said:
Getting some light-to-moderate snow here on the western shore of Lake Lanier with bigger flakes, the biggest flakes and the best rates we've had all night. Would think, from looking at the radar to the WSW of us, we will have similar conditions on and off through most of the night.

25 degrees. Anything falling at this point totally is going to stick.

--30--
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As a follow up, just went outside. Moderate snow now laying on the ground, on the walkways, on the side of the neighborhood streets. Ice forming on the streets and driveway. This escalated quickly here.

--30--
 
Shawn said:
I can't tell you to be honest. Using models right now, is a crapshoot. the UKMET is dead set and has been on 0.25-.0.3+ for the region for a couple days now. How much of that ends up being accumulating snow? I have no idea. I'm a very indecisive person. I hate literals, I hate making a "call". I can say there will likely be flakes flying, and can say there will likely be a dusting to half an inch.

One heavier band setup could ruin my forecast of even an inch, but dropping an extra half inch. I'd say those guys at the NWS are much more honed in, and will update totals as the event unfolds way better than I could. I just try to make the weather website work that we all use right now.

I'm having a slight mental breakdown because I literally can't figure out if Newberry, SC is going to see 3 inches + while CAE proper sees less than an inch. It is nerve wracking, and I am thankful that I never pursued this career outside a hobby.
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I will say nws has increased totals to around 2 inches for cental sc
 
After that initial lucky snow shower we got it has been very frustrating. Getting sleet/ snow grain combo or something right now. Anybody have thoughts whenever bands will be able to survive on the east side of Atlanta?
 
mjscott30 said:
That 2 inches for Montgomery? Underdone. I have 2 inches on my back porch and it's still coming down. According to HRRR, I have another couple of hours of snow. Take that for what it's worth.
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Congrats :) I know how frustrating it must be to live in that area during the winter time. I used to live in west central ga and always felt bad for Montgomery area during winter. I knew your area was looking good based off radar trends. Hope you guys get some more.
 
The QPF being spit out by several major NWP models can certainly support 5-10" swath somewhere near or just west of Raleigh w/ ratios >10-12:1 especially considering the fact that most have only continued to trend wetter as we've drawn closer to verification
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deltadog03 said:
Awesome
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Oh, you'll like it Chris. It's micro, but it's coming down to beat the band. I just like standing out there listening to it. This stuff is going to make for bad driving because it's close to grapple/sleet/ ice grains. It makes a fine sound, not my sleet, but worth the wait. I'm at 28 now.
 
RollTide18 said:
Hardest band of the night here in Montgomery, wind making it look like a blizzard, snow starting to stick to roads
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I got white out during the Blizzard. It was like this stuff, because it was so cold, and it blew into a white out. I never dreamed I'd see a white out in Ga. but I couldn't see 50 feet. That was way cool. One of my many way cool weather moments :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The QPF being spit out by several major NWP models can certainly support 5-10" swath somewhere near or just west of Raleigh w/ ratios >10-12:1 especially considering the fact that most have only continued to trend wetter as we've drawn closer to verification
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If you dont mind what are your thoughts in the Wilson, Nc area haven't heard really anyone mention around here this evening.
 
I just wish one heavy band would set up. I would love to see that. I am just hoping it can happen. Seems like the tail end of events can sometimes bring that.
 
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