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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Nice uvvs from the gfs
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Why do CURRENT wx maps have a 1051 high over the N Plains when in reality it is only 1045? Also, all major models have been initializing off of a 1055-6 high as of 18Z when in fact it was then only 1047. Is this a concern as far as the accuracy of the models and, therefore, what would that portend for this wintry event? Wetter? Warmer? Anything?

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It's important to see how this performs to our west, because if it overperforms to the west, then I fell that could very well transpire to the east. Back in December when college station and places out in Texas racked in, it was a sign of what was to come later on.
 
Are you saying that would favor Roanoke Rapids to Norfolk VA?

A couple days ago I would have painted 3"+ potential from GSO to RIC, now it looks like Wake Forest to Emporia. There should be a band from CLT to GSO that may over-perform but at this point, Roanoke Rapids is in a very good spot if the upper levels continue to trend. We usually see systems trend away from us inside day 5, I am a big believer though in the 48-120hr dead period where guidance loses events just to bring them back in a slightly more amped version come verification. While this is by no means a rule, it seems to happen with some frequency and without a good explanation.
 
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