Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[RollTide18]

SREF for central Bama went down, then up then down , then up and now back down. Nothing consistent. Awesome

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It actually remained relatively unchanged here, maybe a tick less but the boom potential member is over 2.5".

 

[BKWRN29]

It actually remained relatively unchanged here, maybe a tick less but the boom potential member is over 2.5".

Is there a map? Just wondering bc im north west of mgm

 

[TheBatman]

Hrrr 0Z already looking better improvement at hour 17 vs hour 18 on hrrr23z.

 

[crecre9]

HSV SREF mean down slightly from 1.2 to 1.0. I like this graph to see the trends over the past 4 runs.

 

[Storm5]

It actually remained relatively unchanged here, maybe a tick less but the boom potential member is over 2.5".

Yeah I'm not worried about right now . I've had a mean of over 4 before and ended up with flurries . I've also seen them bust upward so it is what it is at the moment

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Latest 0z HRRR seemed to hold the band together a little better intensity wise towards middle/end of the run this time around

 

[TheBatman]

Also Memphis hold steady at 5
Inches on the new hrrr.

 

[Brett]

I

Performance is entirely dependent on the upper levels in this setup, coastal would be a kicker for those east of 95, mainly NE NC & SE VA given the late bloom, whereas most are looking for a minor Gulf tap and help with a mid level wrap up. I was telling the guys at work we like to see a surface reflection off the GA/SC coast at this stage and the consensus is the coastal takes form too late off HAT to be consequential. There could be some ATL enhancement of the band as it moves east but its more of a hybrid, especially if we have some Gulf moisture.

i live in SE VA going with 1-3” right now hope it ends up being 2-4”

 

[Wildboutsnow]

Hows the Lavonia area and North snowhole lookin now?

 

[Lostnthaweather85]

Slight possibility of every county in Alabama getting measurable snowfall from one system. Pretty rare occurrence. For some reason I think every county was under a heavy snow warning for parts of the 93 storm. Could be wrong about that. Hope I was the first to make a super storm comparison

 

[TheBatman]

Old

New

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[RollTide18]

Is there a map? Just wondering bc im north west of mgm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Click on the blue dot close to you and then click on "Total Sno"

 

[Arcc]

Should be noted as before, I could definitely see a big dry slot appear if the band to the south strengthens.

 

[BKWRN29]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Click on the blue dot close to you and then click on "Total Sno"

Ok thanks. Mgm was the closest to me

 

[Stormlover]

21z sref for Alabama Mean/averages
Muscle Shoals 1.36 inches
Meridianville 1.16 inches
Huntsville .95 of an inch
Ft. Payne .60 of an inch
Auburn .59 of an inch
Cullman .56 of an inch
Montgomery .47 of an inch
Anniston .42 of an inch
Alexander City .42 of an inch
Gadsden .32 of an inch
Dothan .12 of an inch

 

[SD]

3 things I am watching for tonight's runs
1. Continued improvement at 500mb
2. Watching to see if and where that jet streak forms (imho this is VITAL for precip in central and southern AL into GA and into the Carolinas)
3. Will we generate more QPF

I would add watch the upper low near the US Canadian border. Each model that closes off the our upper system is farther north with this system and aren't flattening the ridge nearly as quickly.

 

[GaWx]

Thanks very much for responding. Something isn't jibing. I see the 1052 on your map at/near Williston as well as low 1050s all around the area. But check out these surface reports located at this link:

http://kamala.cod.edu/nd/latest.asus43.BIS.KBIS.html

The latest has Williston at only 30.83", which is only 1044 mb! 1052 mb is 31.07".

WILLISTON CLOUDY -17 -24 70 CALM 30.83F

Can anyone figure this discrepancy out?

I just got the answer. Those hourlies are altimeter based pressures and not SLP's. They aren't taking into account temperatures is what I was told. I need to google this and learn more about it. I always assumed that the hourly city by city readings were SLPs. I was wrong! That's why the maps have higher pressures and they're correct. The highest SLP today at williston was 1053.1 mb (13Z today). I'm honestly not believing I just discovered this.

Edit: Williston's 1053.1 still verified lower than the models' 1056 mb.

 

[stormcentral]

Sref looks good for Chattanooga

 

[Flo]

Speculation is that the new NAM will probably show a stronger mid level low, probably closed off, and some SFC reflection on the 00z run ... just based on what I am hearing with the 21z SREF

Is this good for Columbia or bad?

 

[WeatherNC]

21z SREF for RDU after removing the one member w/ 10" lol. Important thing to note here if anything is that most of the members show anything between 1-4" but the mean definitely went up substantially. Again it is the SREF so take it w/ a grain of salt.

It is, most of NC sees a 1-3" event on the 21z SREF, ARW is a little more amped as usual. Clicking through the stations the mean is not picking up on the gaps, some will see a dusting while others will see closer to 2-3". That's about the cap at this point, anyone who verifies more will be deemed fortunate.