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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

DarkKnight said:
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The line isn’t falling apart to my eyes. It is actually starting to fill back in a little bit.


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I can tell you right now that line in north ms isint hardly producing anything. The ground isint even completely covered
 
I only saw a few images posted on American, but I got the impression that the band of snow currently didn’t dissipate and redevelop on the 00z Euro, it seemed to hold together well east into the Carolinas.
 
Notice on the HRRR as well (look at the Sim radar) and the last few frames notice how the line stops the NW to SE march somewhat and the building precip over LA and southern MS and southern and Central AL starts hinting at moving NE. That will be very critical imho
 
NWS here is all in on the screw zone:-| They dropped pops for me from 80% to 50%. SREF dropped. And 3K NAM is bone dry over my house. Trends bad here, need a NW shift in the final period...
rnk.png
 
Latest HRRR as far as I can tell keeps the initial band somewhat intact through Atlanta and develops that second band further west. As Chris said this is crucial, I like seeing it develop further west
 
Hell frame by frame as it moves in through North AL...it sure looks like it's filling in and darkening up. Anyone else see that?
 
deltadog03 said:
Typically yes. However, I think in this instance either right under it, just south and def north and NE of it
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Thanks, maybe we can get some help from that up here in Lavonia(NEGA) and I'm rootin' for you and my family too. WOO HOO!
 
What model is fox 6 using? He said this was fresh model data. It had snow for Jefferson, Shelby, and Tuscaloosa counties from roughly 1-3 PM and then it back builded and had it snowing from 4 PM-11 PM with temps in the low 20’s.....
 
malak05 said:
Trends over past 3 HRRR runs
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That’s similar to what I just saw on Fox6, it was about 30 miles to the NW of the latest HRRR, all the way up to northern half of Jefferson County. If that keeps trending more NW and stalling then some heavier snow could def setup
 
Parker said:
What model is fox 6 using? He said this was fresh model data. It had snow for Jefferson, Shelby, and Tuscaloosa counties from roughly 1-3 PM and then it back builded and had it snowing from 4 PM-11 PM with temps in the low 20’s.....
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Latest HRRR has 5 hours of snow so far for MGM and the back end still west of Selma as the backend started to back build.
 
Parker said:
What model is fox 6 using? He said this was fresh model data. It had snow for Jefferson, Shelby, and Tuscaloosa counties from roughly 1-3 PM and then it back builded and had it snowing from 4 PM-11 PM with temps in the low 20’s.....
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Yeah I saw that it really look good down my also. Not sure which model their using now
 
sigwx said:
Yeah I saw that it really look good down my also. Not sure which model their using now
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It had to be something close to the RGEM, I mean that run that they showed has to be what ABC and NWS is talking about when they mention upgrading to winter storm warning. It was crazy how it just built back to the NW and then stalled for hours.
 
Saw this at the other board:

SREF mean for RDU 2.64 (up from 1.98), range from 1" to 4.16
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Chris mentioned it earlier, but notice how it has redevelopment of snow occurring down in SE LA/S. MS on 12z run that wasn’t on the 10 or 11z runs.
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Yeah, the HRRR picked up on dry/wet trends better last storm in the Carolinas, so if we get this wetter trend and better development in N GA trends as well, we could not be so screwed after all. The 12Z HRRR has a band developing well west of me after the initial one falls apart. This would not only help me, but also all in the ATL area.
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, the HRRR picked up on dry/wet trends better last storm in the Carolinas, so if we get this wetter trend and better development in N GA trends as well, we could not be so screwed after all. The 12Z HRRR has a band developing well west of me after the initial one falls apart. This would not only help me, but also all in the ATL area.
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
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Yeah will be interesting next couple of HRRR runs as if that continues to build and fill in over W GA to Carolina we will possible get a sustained additional snowfall for 4-5 hours tonight

PS. latest RAP run has similarity to HRRR
 
NAM also shows that band really intensifying at the 20/59 corridor. If that band can stall and build a little more than people in southern tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, bibb, and others may do well.
 
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