jaymackd3
Member
Good disco in HUN AFD:
not sold on the GFS
QPF, given that it does not appear to be resolving the synoptic
setup very well. Looking at forecast soundings, the GFS dries the
mid levels during the day, even while the upper levels and lower
levels are completely saturated. This drying is most likely due to
the GFS veering the winds to the west in this layer a bit early,
given the strengthening and eastward moving upper trough. Other
models, including the ECMWF and NAM, do not have as much drying as
they keep winds more backed to the southwest through the day. So with
this forecast, will lean more towards the ECMWF and NAM with greater
emphasis on the ECMWF given its consistency over the past few runs.
This would give the area between 0.04 and 0.08 inch of QPF, so not a
considerable amount more than the GFS. Given the snow ratios
mentioned above, this amount of QPF would equate to between 0.5 and 1
inch of snow across the region. Now, I`ve said this in the
discussion the last few mornings and I want to reiterate it. Just
because these amounts seem low does not mean they will not cause
significant impacts. It`s going to be very cold outside. In fact,
temperatures will likely be in the lower 20s. So the snow will stick
and it`s likely that it will stick to the roads. Given the warmer
conditions today, there`s a potential for the snow to initially melt
on contact and then refreeze in the colder temperatures. So don`t let
the low snow totals fool you. For these reasons, have decided to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area on Tuesday,
beginning at 3 am in NW Alabama and at 6 am everywhere else.
not sold on the GFS
QPF, given that it does not appear to be resolving the synoptic
setup very well. Looking at forecast soundings, the GFS dries the
mid levels during the day, even while the upper levels and lower
levels are completely saturated. This drying is most likely due to
the GFS veering the winds to the west in this layer a bit early,
given the strengthening and eastward moving upper trough. Other
models, including the ECMWF and NAM, do not have as much drying as
they keep winds more backed to the southwest through the day. So with
this forecast, will lean more towards the ECMWF and NAM with greater
emphasis on the ECMWF given its consistency over the past few runs.
This would give the area between 0.04 and 0.08 inch of QPF, so not a
considerable amount more than the GFS. Given the snow ratios
mentioned above, this amount of QPF would equate to between 0.5 and 1
inch of snow across the region. Now, I`ve said this in the
discussion the last few mornings and I want to reiterate it. Just
because these amounts seem low does not mean they will not cause
significant impacts. It`s going to be very cold outside. In fact,
temperatures will likely be in the lower 20s. So the snow will stick
and it`s likely that it will stick to the roads. Given the warmer
conditions today, there`s a potential for the snow to initially melt
on contact and then refreeze in the colder temperatures. So don`t let
the low snow totals fool you. For these reasons, have decided to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area on Tuesday,
beginning at 3 am in NW Alabama and at 6 am everywhere else.
