• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Just have a gut feeling this is what is going to happen.

26951777_1684428068286786_7786469408398251568_o.jpg
 
1300m said:
Here's my forecast map. Pardon the quality, I just wanted to get something out this morning.

View attachment 3090
Click to expand...
Not bad, yea I'm going to probably drop a 3-7" contour somewhere in the eastern piedmont given how the modeling has converged on this solution & over performance upstream
 
Memphis didn't do as well as we thought they would. HRRR with a huge bust for them

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
1300m said:
Here's my forecast map. Pardon the quality, I just wanted to get something out this morning.

View attachment 3090
Click to expand...
Looks solid to me, I think central NC is in a great spot you don't have a wrapping up SLP so no real concern of a NW trend and no concern of a warm nose.... almost a perfect scenario for this type of setup.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
The ‘dreaded’ snow hole sure has been consistent in the various models over the last few days. I’m guessing NGA will get just enough to close the schools on Wednesday and be bitter cold, but otherwise not much to get excited about other than getting stuck at home for another day with the kids and nothing to send them out to play in for a while. Still be fun to watch to the west and East!
 
The FFC now has me under the "Special Weather Statement" and is calling for up to half an inch here. Seeing as how I haven't had accumulating snow since January 29, 2014, I would gladly take even this meager amount and call it a winter. Good luck to everyone else and hopefully all of us that didn't see snow in all the previous storms this winter will at least see some token flurries!
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
The FFC now has me under the "Special Weather Statement" and is calling for up to half an inch here. Seeing as how I haven't had accumulating snow since January 29, 2014, I would gladly take even this meager amount and call it a winter. Good luck to everyone else and hopefully all of us that didn't see snow in all the previous storms this winter will at least see some token flurries!
Click to expand...
I think an inch of snow is possible around our areas
 
Regardless of whether or not it actually snows tomorrow, the FFC has me holding at a steady temperature around 32 and is depicting such temperatures region wide. If such a forecast actually verifies, I think that that it will only be the second day during this decade that the temperatures have stayed at or below freezing over the course of the entire day.
 
I read Greg Fishel at WRAL said he doesnt know if it will stick to the roads. :confused:
 
BPATL said:
^^^^^^I know, but huge amounts of precip to the west filling in, gulf will be tapped...
Click to expand...
Looking at Radar yeah it definitely at moment seems to be filling in not diminishing some of the models had it losing strength that's something to look at over next couple of hours if it's holing its line and strength by 10 AM then that gives credence to the some of the models from yesterday
 
What you want to watch for is the stream of moisture feeding from SW to NE. Right now, per radar, you can see it moving NW to SE as its being squashed by upper levels. We need it to close off and start to tilt some or AL/GA will bust big time.
 
DadOfJax said:
Band already starting to diminish on the last few frames. The next 2 hours will be the tell all.
Click to expand...
It's supposed to fall apart, it's been modeled for days and days. Then it gets lit right on SC GA border and gives Central and Northern NC, solid snows
 
deltadog03 said:
I have a sneaky feeling that Macon could also do better than Atlanta, I don't know. For us in around Central Georgia we have got to have that Jet streak develope or we're not going to see hardly anything
Click to expand...
I don't expect too much up here. That snow hole is going to screw us get streak or not. Only thing that can help us is the band either not dying at all or it dies soon and the next one develops west of here. Macon probably will do better.
 
Plumes dropped again for Bham, down to .34, but still several at an inch or more.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't expect too much up here. That snow hole is going to screw us get streak or not. Only thing that can help us is the band either not dying at all or it dies soon and the next one develops west of here. Macon probably will do better.
Click to expand...
We shall see for sure. I will say latest HRRR has it holding together better
 
BPATL said:
You would think that the largest TV market in the SE would have a better realistic approach to this, This is where Atlanta gets in trouble and it is the producers that are to blame, they tell them not to alarm or panic, lol, the public, then they get egg on their face later,,,
Click to expand...

Truthfully, much of the modeling seems to show dying QPF as we get into North Georgia. For that reason, I am not sure that the meteorologists are out of line.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Interestingly enough the latest HRRR never breaks the line of snow thru AL/GA...still shows weakening before restrengthening but all other runs had a full breakup before then...continue to watch to see if that weakening signal is less and less over next few runs
 
Arcc said:
I think the thing to watch is how fast the band falls apart as it may signal when and where the second band may form if it does form.
Click to expand...
This is just part of KBMX AFD:
This system has been overperforming
across the Memphis and Paducah areas, and with that in mind, we have
raised accumulations across the entire area to the 1 to 1.5 inch
range. A relative minimum seems likely somewhere in the CWA as the
isentropic lift takes a pause before lift increases in association
with the upper-level trough. This minimum may actually occur
across the northwestern part of the area, and the focus could
shift to a second wave farther east in the afternoon and evening.

The approaching vort max at 500mb appears very impressive this
afternoon into tonight and will have an opportunity to enhance the
snow band as it moves east of I-59. PWAT values will surge in this
zone, and additional lift could result in snowfall amounts exceeding
our current forecast. The ECMWF, several European Ensemble members,
and the Regional Canadian indicate the potential for 2-4 inch
amounts along and east of I-59 all the way to our eastern and
southern borders. This scenario will be monitored for a possible
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Impacts could be significant
across our entire forecast area due to temperatures falling into
the 20s and teens as the snow falls.
 
I have no dang idea what to expect anymore. Models keep going up and down and I just don’t know what’s going to happen. Bham NWS is a lot more optimistic than I am starting to be.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top