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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

accu35 said:
gfs_asnow_seus_7.png
Up tic from gfs
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Oh welcome to the party gfs lmao. Much better
 
Webberweather53 said:
GFS has 0.3" QPF centered near the US-1 corridor in NC... It's showing more snow than the NAM further west in the Arklatex so it probably deserves a little more credence than its higher resolution counterpart for once
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I think the Nam was a fluke. Had issues and broken images when coming in. Also didn't look much different with regards to the 18z run my guess it was a fluke
 
Sam Sparks said:
FWIW, Weather Channel just noted that the system is over performing in West TN at the moment. It would be great if that over performance continued as the system heads east.
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That's why I'm patiently awaiting a little southward shift because its going to weaken in time.
 
Since we're depending on development once east of the mountains, I don't think we can necessarily say that over performance out west (TN, KY, etc) will translate to over performance east of the mountains. If anything, it would bode well for those hoping the line doesn't dry up before it gets to them.
TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
Since we're depending on development once east of the mountains, I don't think we can necessarily say that over performance out west (TN, KY, etc) will translate to over performance east of the mountains. If anything, it would bode well for those hoping the line doesn't dry up before it gets to them.
TW
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Having more moisture available before this crosses the mountains definitely helps those east of there in the Carolinas esp NC
 
SCweather said:
Sorry? Man you say that everytime. I don't see how we get straight rain and a "wrap around flurry". I just don't buy that.
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I don't know. The warm nose in South Carolina is a very real issue, especially if it may be a few degrees too cold (again though, I'm throwing the ICON's temps in the trash can with it being as far off as it was at initialization for me). I'd say maybe a light wet dusting.
 
1300m said:
I'll have a side of that over-performance please.
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Lol ikr, and the high res models were showing maybe a couple inches at best... Even the NAM is consistently doubling our numbers here relatively to SW KY. We can always hope right? This storm is busting harder than Dec 2017 did in AL/GA up there...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't know. The warm nose in South Carolina is a very real issue, especially if it may be a few degrees too cold (again though, I'm throwing the ICON's temps in the trash can with it being as far off as it was at initialization for me). I'd say maybe a light wet dusting.
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It's really the SFC temp issue. The precip is falling with basically below FrZ temps just off the deck. Rates could be too light to drag down the SFC temps but any heavier rates would cause a rapid crash in temps much like convection in the summertime.
 
WRAL going with a 5% chance of 4” or more in the Triangle. They got the WPC playbook and are running it step by step.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Snow totals are approaching a foot apparently in southwestern KY & southeastern MO and it's still snowing hard when they were forecast to get 1-2"...
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How much precip equivalent are they getting? Does anyone know? Perhaps we just don’t understand how high of a snow ratio we are really looking at out of this event. If they are near a foot then that would be a 12:1 ratio, and I wouldn’t think they are anywhere near an inch.
 
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