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Pattern Mega March 2023

18z GFS just did something funny
 
gfs being stubborn bout some snow round here next friday,will it cave to the euro and canadian or other way around??anybody got any ensemble news o this?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Still running but 12z had a few interesting members close to this and one very massive storm, which was the map below View attachment 133532
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Unfortunately I wouldn’t expect much from this. In terms of winter weather at least. The pattern still wouldn’t favor this as I’m sure the SER will trend a bit stronger and push this track further NW… but this is likely the storm that would start the trend to a favorable week 2 of March… that’s when I would be looking for more fun to pop up.. GFS shows the increasingly favorable pacific by then.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Unfortunately I wouldn’t expect much from this. In terms of winter weather at least. The pattern still wouldn’t favor this as I’m sure the SER will trend a bit stronger and push this track further NW… but this is likely the storm that would start the trend to a favorable week 2 of March… that’s when I would be looking for more fun to pop up.. GFS shows the increasingly favorable pacific by then.
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Yeah, but I would definitely watch late next week for severe weather. Models do seem to all support the idea of a system with strong dynamics.
 
Might just be me, but this isn't a ideal situation the GFS is projecting snow wise for my area at least. Zero anchoring high to the North.

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Euro has the right evolution IMO

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Unfortunately I wouldn’t expect much from this. In terms of winter weather at least. The pattern still wouldn’t favor this as I’m sure the SER will trend a bit stronger and push this track further NW… but this is likely the storm that would start the trend to a favorable week 2 of March… that’s when I would be looking for more fun to pop up.. GFS shows the increasingly favorable pacific by then.
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I’ll still watch for winter weather for the mountains if anything
 
If you thought we were going to go happily straight into spring.. you will be sorely mistaken. Winter will make its return in March .. quite impressively as well. If we’re going to find a way to get snow in this winter it’s going to have to be in this pattern. Euro weeklies continue to support this robust return to winter. Most models shooting for an intense shift into a high amplitude phase 8. +PNA will return. And so will snow chances. 25D06FA2-F963-4F8C-A205-0AF6FDA9DC34.jpeg02186193-E081-4806-90F5-EBA95BB9016B.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you thought we were going to go happily straight into spring.. you will be sorely mistaken. Winter will make its return in March .. quite impressively as well. If we’re going to find a way to get snow in this winter it’s going to have to be in this pattern. Euro weeklies continue to support this robust return to winter. Most models shooting for an intense shift into a high amplitude phase 8. +PNA will return. And so will snow chances. View attachment 133538View attachment 133539
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If you want snow in March in the SE, you're going to need those deep greens over you, not the light blues. This ain't January.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you thought we were going to go happily straight into spring.. you will be sorely mistaken. Winter will make its return in March .. quite impressively as well. If we’re going to find a way to get snow in this winter it’s going to have to be in this pattern. Euro weeklies continue to support this robust return to winter. Most models shooting for an intense shift into a high amplitude phase 8. +PNA will return. And so will snow chances. View attachment 133538View attachment 133539
Click to expand...
58CA5C27-EB12-4FE6-9A1D-AAFB9E4042FF.jpeg


You need medication.
 
Itryatgolf said:
With the ao and epo eventually trending negative, we will get cold. Kinda agree with SD on whole artic dumping on us
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Yeah there are certainly some signs now of colder times once we get to around 3/8-3/10. The AO and NAO look to be going in the tank and the MJO, which is now on the left side of the circle now appears to be headed towards a high amp phase 8… we’ve not seen high cold phases modeled this whole winter. Also there are indications showing of legit a legit cold airmass building up in NW Canada starting next week… widespread -25 to -40 degree cold which is impressive when you consider those areas are approaching 8 hours of daylight now. I don’t know if we’ll get cold enough for snow opportunities, but northern areas of southeast may at least have a shot.
 
weatherfide said:
If you want snow in March in the SE, you're going to need those deep greens over you, not the light blues. This ain't January.
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Maybe for the Deep South .. but us in the upper SE just need colder than average 850s and some colder than average surface temps and all we need is some good dynamics to bring the cold to the surface. Snow this late in the season is usually 35-38 heavy wet types of snow
 
THIS*** is how you get it wall to wall cold in the US!! Pressures building over Canada and that would be dropping south with cold temps. Lets see if it holds.
 

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NCSNOW said:
GFS and Euro on same page next Friday. Canadian is furtherest west, but still spits out Ice. It is the outlier at 5H right now. This is another great opportunity / track that is most likely gonna fail just because we cant tap cold.

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If we aren't going to get this I would rather just keep my sun and 70s/80s!
 
I still would not get caught up with next weekends storm. Unless we see multiple days of models latching on.. there is Very little ensemble support for it and the pattern favors more mid Atlantic/ SNE .. but I am pretty happy about how the models are evolving with our pattern after.. recent GEFS got a lot colder and even sooner. I still would wait for week 2 in march but GEFS says things change a bit earlier. 1677243227808.gif
 
We likely get pretty cold (vs averages) by mid march through the month. That I agree with but those of us east of the apps need A LOT of help for me to get excited about any storm because we are flexing the hell out of the SER right now and any storms are cutting. If I'm in the western southeast I'd watch closely because cold chasing moisture works out for you guys. The 6z GFS is a much likelier scenario with a further NW tracking LP that drops a little deform band around middle TN and through out the Ohio valley and eventually NE. Beyond that, you can absolutely get snow in the southeast in March but you're pushing you're luck if you really are excited about the idea of snow in mid to late march in the year of our lord 2023. We can't even get it in peak climo. You would need the coldest air in the northern hemisphere sitting either over you or just to your north and lining up another storm perfectly with perfect timing. That might sound like a party pooper, but to me that's realistic. I am like 95% sure we get an extended "winter" with below average temps, but averages are going up now and air masses will be moderating as we enter more spring time patterns. If this was the 70's, then yeah I wouldn't through in the towel honestly until mid April, but like Slim Charles said, the thing about the old days ... they the old days.
 
iGRXY said:
We likely get pretty cold (vs averages) by mid march through the month. That I agree with but those of us east of the apps need A LOT of help for me to get excited about any storm because we are flexing the hell out of the SER right now and any storms are cutting. If I'm in the western southeast I'd watch closely because cold chasing moisture works out for you guys. The 6z GFS is a much likelier scenario with a further NW tracking LP that drops a little deform band around middle TN and through out the Ohio valley and eventually NE. Beyond that, you can absolutely get snow in the southeast in March but you're pushing you're luck if you really are excited about the idea of snow in mid to late march in the year of our lord 2023. We can't even get it in peak climo. You would need the coldest air in the northern hemisphere sitting either over you or just to your north and lining up another storm perfectly with perfect timing. That might sound like a party pooper, but to me that's realistic. I am like 95% sure we get an extended "winter" with below average temps, but averages are going up now and air masses will be moderating as we enter more spring time patterns. If this was the 70's, then yeah I wouldn't through in the towel honestly until mid April, but like Slim Charles said, the thing about the old days ... they the old days.
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The one thing that I’m noticing the last several days that does give me a bit of hope is that over the next week there is a legit cold air mass building up in NW Canada… as I said last night despite those areas approaching 8 hours of daylight now, there looks to widespread -20 to -40 degree cold developing there next week. With strong blocking up top developing there should be a good source region to tap into. As little help as I think Pacific is going to give us, the PNA does move close to neutral later next week… with the amount of blocking showing though I’m really not sure you would want to see much of a +PNA anyway… I still think that kinda messed us up for storm chances back when we had the strong blocking in December because the +PNA ended up suppressing everything way to far south.
 
Chazwin said:
The one thing that I’m noticing the last several days that does give me a bit of hope is that over the next week there is a legit cold air mass building up in NW Canada… as I said last night despite those areas approaching 8 hours of daylight now, there looks to widespread -20 to -40 degree cold developing there next week. With strong blocking up top developing there should be a good source region to tap into. As little help as I think Pacific is going to give us, the PNA does move close to neutral later next week… with the amount of blocking showing though I’m really not sure you would want to see much of a +PNA anyway… I still think that kinda messed us up for storm chances back when we had the strong blocking in December because the +PNA ended up suppressing everything way to far south.
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I agree, but this is basically winters last Hooray if you will. You're going to get another cutting storm with an artic front and artic air behind it with severe weather on the front end. After it sweeps through you're going to have an extremely short period to score something, hints me saying perfectly timed storm, before we likely retreat back to slightly below to average temps through the month. After this cold shot winter is likely done. Air masses are quickly going to be moderating considerably in the artic by mid march and nothing to really reinforce it further. The Carolinas better hope next Friday's storm trends further south or we get some type of trailing s/w or get the front to stale near us and get something to ride along the front because that's the last shot of the season IMO. I'll gladly eat crow in the snow if I am wrong, but there's just too many variables against us and we are counting on pattern change in March that likely will be delayed anyways to make it happen. We couldn't even reel in 2 storms this year that was showing a foot + on Operationals and 4" ensemble means under 100-120 hours. To me we are relying on perfect timing and I know how that works out 9/10x.
 
Chazwin said:
The one thing that I’m noticing the last several days that does give me a bit of hope is that over the next week there is a legit cold air mass building up in NW Canada… as I said last night despite those areas approaching 8 hours of daylight now, there looks to widespread -20 to -40 degree cold developing there next week. With strong blocking up top developing there should be a good source region to tap into. As little help as I think Pacific is going to give us, the PNA does move close to neutral later next week… with the amount of blocking showing though I’m really not sure you would want to see much of a +PNA anyway… I still think that kinda messed us up for storm chances back when we had the strong blocking in December because the +PNA ended up suppressing everything way to far south.
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look for most the cold stay out west, just been pattern were stuck in
 
iGRXY said:
I agree, but this is basically winters last Hooray if you will. You're going to get another cutting storm with an artic front and artic air behind it with severe weather on the front end. After it sweeps through you're going to have an extremely short period to score something, hints me saying perfectly timed storm, before we likely retreat back to slightly below to average temps through the month. After this cold shot winter is likely done. Air masses are quickly going to be moderating considerably in the artic by mid march and nothing to really reinforce it further. The Carolinas better hope next Friday's storm trends further south or we get some type of trailing s/w or get the front to stale near us and get something to ride along the front because that's the last shot of the season IMO. I'll gladly eat crow in the snow if I am wrong, but there's just too many variables against us and we are counting on pattern change in March that likely will be delayed anyways to make it happen. We couldn't even reel in 2 storms this year that was showing a foot + on Operationals and 4" ensemble means under 100-120 hours. To me we are relying on perfect timing and I know how that works out 9/10x.
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The caveat here is if there is tropospheric influence from the SSWE. You could easily get cold enough. Mix in a neutral PNA and some blocking and it gets interesting. But that’s a lot of ducks to get in a row. So in the meantime get outside and enjoy the late May weather!


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Depends where your at on the support. Gfs has been on this one for a few days now.
 
The D7 system is probably a mirage with mediocre blocking in the north Atlantic and no pac help, it's a prime NW trend candidate. It looks like we will start stepping cooler as time goes on but I'm not seeing that smoking gun that says low 20s or late season snow right now. If we had gone through this evolution 3 weeks ago we would have a much wider window of opportunity now it needs help.
 
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Maybe it won’t snow, but it wouldn’t take much to turn this. All models are showing a pretty strong storm rolling through with a range from a 985-993 low. Tap a little more cold and not cut then we in business.
 
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