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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

GaWx

GaWx

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Here's the May thread. Hopefully, there will be a few reprieves from heat and humidity like what the 12Z GFS has for May 3-5. However, heat/humidity will always win out in the SE eventually. So enjoy any reprieves that may occur! Regardless of the wx, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you've got (Thanks, Joe). :)
 
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GFS says hello summer to start May, lol. 90 for me, @GaWx jackpots with 93!
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Not a lot to look at. Maybe the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas will aid in some tropical downpours over the weekend (NC). Warm. - Forecast done and verified by me
 
Here’s a forecast that won’t verify! Drought getting a stranglehold, Ted Nugent style around here!3753322B-7731-4F47-AD6C-3BD4E8F04D00.png
 
Welp there’s always 1 positive about a hurricane/TS, no hail ??‍♂️??‍♂️ Deep warm cloud layers kill hail immediately
 
The airmass has a tropical feel and look to it today! The humidity is way up and the puffy cumulus clouds. Looks like the tropical disturbance off of FL , is cranking the SE fetch! Wish it would bring some rain!
 
I’m headed to OKC bright and early. They got crushed with snow all winter long. I will try to bring the mojo back home with me. ?? Thank me later
 
GaWx said:
Here's the May thread. Hopefully, there will be a few reprieves from heat and humidity like what the 12Z GFS has for May 3-5. However, heat/humidity will always win out in the SE eventually. So enjoy any reprieves that may occur! Regardless of the wx, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you've got (Thanks, Joe). :)
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I'm just waiting for the inevitable complaints about the heat and the overall hate for summer.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Also, the SPC ihas a marginal risk outlook for severe weather on Saturday.

Still looking good for wet microbursts...

View attachment 19383
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Definitely a decent wind setup, dry air aloft, steep 0-3km lapses, inverted Vs—higher LCLs, respectable amounts of CAPE (1000-3000 jkg), also the NAM has solid DCAPE with lots of areas with 600-1000 jkg, still looks like dry air aloft will be decent with this one , combine that with 1.30-1.60 PWAT and you get solid hydrometeor loading—negative bouyancy which adds to the downburst threat, + 0-6km shear of 30-40kt, this is a decent setup for strong outflows/downbursts, this sounding does support multicellular clusters/supercellular like structures 4A6BEFAA-8119-431C-AD6A-A98CA22B0FF6.png
 
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SE flow around the Bermuda High has fired off thundershowers along the ridge line today. See how far east they can drift. 1st time seeing this constant summertime feature appear this calendar year 2019.
 
NCSNOW said:
SE flow around the Bermuda High has fired off thundershowers along the ridge line today. See how far east they can drift. 1st time seeing this constant summertime feature appear this calendar year 2019.
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They seem to always jog more east than expected, I remember countless times last summer where CAMs said no storms then they seemingly drift off the mountains farther than expected, CAP/lack of forcing is what’s getting us in the piedmont atm ?
 
Heat lightning in Wilkes. Dry and breezy while buckets are being poured to the west. Going to need flood advisories soon.
 
Freezing level lowering..may see some small hail esp north-west. Some late evening convection also poss.
 
If today is decent in S. Central Texas, tomorrow could be a sleep threat. Outflow boundaries could cause storm initiation in an area with high instability. CAM wont handle it well since it’s coming in from Mexico.
 
NCSNOW said:
SE flow around the Bermuda High has fired off thundershowers along the ridge line today. See how far east they can drift. 1st time seeing this constant summertime feature appear this calendar year 2019.
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I wish it would continue for weeks. Years ago I remember all 7 days of a week featuring severe thunderstorm warnings sometimes 3 times a day. No defined front or low pressure.
 
Watch the upstream convection. Could destroy the Appalachian Mountains tonight.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Heat lightning in Wilkes. Dry and breezy while buckets are being poured to the west. Going to need flood advisories soon.
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Excessively hot and dry here! Going to need a heat and drought advisory soon! I can see the towers at Merlefest from here!
 
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