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May 2021 Discussion Thread

Long lasting warmth should start late April early may ... always has really this year has had some notable longer lasting cool down way later than what would usually happen
Prove it , there’s plenty of data out there please prove it ! This is a forum , we are weather enthusiasts I think we can afford to be scrupulous and provide evidence for our claims !
 
5/5 morning
View attachment 83239

should we keep these in the monthly thread or start a new thread where these can all be back to back?
New thread so it will be easy to go back and look at them, don't allow comments though just have the images in there. Thoughts?
 
Wonder when we’ll start to see a warmer response on models, should be the next couple of days 1FABBF04-4B90-4191-A6C0-E51AB00F378A.gif5F56CD0D-FC47-4822-99F4-A6C4E5245B43.gif63BF14F2-2F9E-4227-B166-6045CBD2AD77.gif
 
Most mjo phases are cool on the MJJ composites. I guess once we get into the COD maybe we get back into the nina background state but AAM is going way up per the CFSView attachment 83244
Yeah best hope is for phase 6-7 now, and I noticed a few days ago the CFS was showing a +AAM while the EPS was showing a -AAM later in the month
 
Yeah best hope is for phase 6-7 now, and I noticed a few days ago the CFS was showing a +AAM while the EPS was showing a -AAM later in the month
Yeah I'm not sure about AAM forecasts. I know there are bias corrected versions and some models have really big biases leaves me kind of scratching my head
 
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