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May 2021 Discussion Thread

NickyBGuarantee said:
Long lasting warmth should start late April early may ... always has really this year has had some notable longer lasting cool down way later than what would usually happen
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Prove it , there’s plenty of data out there please prove it ! This is a forum , we are weather enthusiasts I think we can afford to be scrupulous and provide evidence for our claims !
 
SD said:
5/5 morning
View attachment 83239

should we keep these in the monthly thread or start a new thread where these can all be back to back?
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New thread so it will be easy to go back and look at them, don't allow comments though just have the images in there. Thoughts?
 
Wonder when we’ll start to see a warmer response on models, should be the next couple of days 1FABBF04-4B90-4191-A6C0-E51AB00F378A.gif5F56CD0D-FC47-4822-99F4-A6C4E5245B43.gif63BF14F2-2F9E-4227-B166-6045CBD2AD77.gif
 
SD said:
Most mjo phases are cool on the MJJ composites. I guess once we get into the COD maybe we get back into the nina background state but AAM is going way up per the CFSView attachment 83244
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Yeah best hope is for phase 6-7 now, and I noticed a few days ago the CFS was showing a +AAM while the EPS was showing a -AAM later in the month
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah best hope is for phase 6-7 now, and I noticed a few days ago the CFS was showing a +AAM while the EPS was showing a -AAM later in the month
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Yeah I'm not sure about AAM forecasts. I know there are bias corrected versions and some models have really big biases leaves me kind of scratching my head
 
SD said:
That GFS run was cool crazy how we keep the trough in the east through the run
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GOA ridge doesn’t do us good with short wavelengths unlike winter, could be worse with it towering more tho ig
 
Lol at the models, there's no way this cool period lasts this long. They are probably based off of the current MJO data which is in the cold phases. Someone said earlier that most MJJ MJO phases are cool anyways so there's more than likely a cold bias.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I miss the SER.
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This is still probably the effect of the strat thing back in jan/feb/March, as HM said a week ago, it’s hard to get rid of patterns in time, and things like that related to old strat warming events can last well into early summer, southeast ridge will probably come back as soon as we go back to relying on the pacific completely again and go into a deeply -NAM
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is still probably the effect of the strat thing back in jan/feb/March, as HM said a week ago, it’s hard to get rid of patterns in time, and things like that related to old strat warming events can last well into early summer, southeast ridge will probably come back as soon as we go back to relying on the pacific completely again and go into a deeply -NAM
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So basically we need a strat warming event all of summer so that we can have a nice winter
 
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